NVIDIA (NVDA) KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- Nvidia guided for $108 billion in revenue, plus or minus 2%. Analyst estimates cluster around $109 billion, with adjusted earnings near $2.47 per share.
- Given the ongoing leadership transition, the earnings report may beat last quarter’s estimates while still leaving the stock sensitive to the size and timing of future demand.
- NVDA is already trading down -30% from its record high set last month as traders digest the scope of Huang’s impropriety and the outlook for the company moving forward
When are Nvidia’s Earnings?
Nvidia reports earnings on Tuesday, November 17 after the market close.
What are Nvidia’s Earnings Expectations
Nvidia is expected to report $2.47 in EPS on $108.8B in revenue.
Nvidia Earnings Preview
In an unexpected twist, investors will be weighing strong AI-chip demand against an unexpected leadership change in this quarter’s Nvidia earnings report. Jensen Huang resigned as CEO this week, and CFO Colette Kress was named interim CEO. The company says the report and earnings call will proceed as scheduled. Kress will now face questions about whether NVIDIA’s strategy and outlook remain on course.
As noted above, the company guided for $108 billion in revenue, plus or minus 2%. Analyst estimates cluster around $109 billion, with adjusted earnings near $2.47 per share. That would put year-over-year revenue growth close to 90%, following second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion. Data Center generated $89 billion in that quarter, up 117% from a year earlier. Crucially, all of the reported quarter’s backward-looking results took place under Jenson Huang’s tenure, so they should reflect the stale “business as usual” conditions, but markets are always forward-looking.
Accordingly, Data Center demand and guidance will be central. Investors will look for evidence that hyperscalers and other customers are sustaining their spending on AI infrastructure, and whether fourth-quarter guidance points to further growth. NVIDIA’s third-quarter outlook excludes Data Center compute revenue from China, so any update on that market could also matter.
Beyond forward guidance, margins and the product transition are the key thing to watch. The company’s gross margin was 75% in the second quarter; NVIDIA guided to 74% for Q3, plus or minus 0.5%. Investors will want to know how the Blackwell Ultra ramp is progressing and when Vera Rubin begins contributing meaningfully to revenue. Given the ongoing leadership transition, the earnings report may beat last quarter’s estimates while still leaving the stock sensitive to the size and timing of future demand.
Nvidia Technical Analysis – NVDA Daily Chart
Source: TradingView, StoneX
Turning our attention to the chart, NVDA is already trading down -30% from its record high set last month as traders digest the scope of Huang’s impropriety and the outlook for the company moving forward. The $165 level represents a key area of previous support from H2 2025 and is therefore the most important immediate level to watch.
If we see soft guidance for the coming quarter, a move back toward the post-Huang lows near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement in the mid-$140s could be next. Meanwhile, strong guidance and a lack of concern about future demand may bolster the stock amidst the turmoil, with little in the way of resistance until the 200-day MA closer to $200.
One way or another, there are multiple storylines to follow from an earnings report that was expected to be smooth sailing at this time a week ago.
-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research
Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX
