Bitcoin Outlook: Confidence fails to stabilize above 70k

Recent sessions continue to be challenging for Bitcoin price action in the short term. The cryptocurrency has once again traded below the 70k reference level, posting a modest gain of just over 0.70% during the session. This continues to highlight a lack of consistent activity, which does not reflect sustained growth in confidence or demand for Bitcoin in the short term.

In this context, a sense of indecision has become increasingly evident in price movements, as market appetite has not fully stabilized. If this dynamic persists, neutral conditions are likely to continue dominating BTC price action in the coming trading sessions.

Lack of activity becomes constant

Despite the ongoing Middle East conflict and the market awaiting further updates, Bitcoin activity has become increasingly less relevant in the short term. This has led to the cryptocurrency not being clearly perceived as either an attractive risk asset or a reliable safe haven compared to traditional markets.

This lack of activity is directly reflected in network metrics. The daily transactions confirmed indicator shows a decline toward the 465,000 level, compared to levels above 700,000 seen in previous sessions. This drop highlights a sustained decrease in network activity, making it difficult for consistent demand to take hold in the short term.

Source: Blockchain.com

This trend is also visible in Bitcoin ETF flows, where capital movements have been significantly lower compared to those observed in early March. For example, as of April 2, inflows reached only $12 million, far below the more than $400 million recorded in previous weeks.

Source: The block

Rather than signaling clear buying or selling pressure, this behavior reflects a lack of market participation, suggesting that capital may be rotating into other assets in the short term.

Taking all of this into account, and despite the expectation of further developments in the Middle East conflict, what stands out in the BTC market is a decline in overall activity, which could continue to reinforce a phase of indecision in price action in the coming sessions.

 

Confidence remains stuck

The crypto Fear and Greed Index remains relatively stable around 34 points, failing to move out of the “fear” zone in recent sessions. This suggests that, although there have been attempts at a recovery in confidence, they have not been strong enough to push the market into a neutral zone.

Source: Coinmarketcap

This behavior reflects a persistent short-term bearish sentiment, limiting the potential for a more solid recovery in demand. If confidence indicators do not show a more structural improvement, the market is likely to continue reflecting a dynamic of uncertainty and sideways movement in Bitcoin price action.

 

Bitcoin Technical Outlook

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

• Neutral conditions remain in place: Recent Bitcoin price action has not been able to establish a clear direction, with the price continuing to trade within a sideways range between 75k resistance and 64k support. If price remains within this range, this structure will continue to serve as the main short-term reference.
   

• RSI: The RSI continues to fluctuate around the 50 level, indicating a balance between buying and selling momentum in the short term. If this dynamic persists, the phase of indecision is likely to remain dominant in the coming sessions.
   

• MACD: The MACD histogram remains close to the zero line, reflecting a lack of directional strength in short-term moving averages. This reinforces the idea of a market without a clear trend, where neutrality prevails.
   

Key levels:

• 75,000 – Key resistance: The upper boundary of the current range. A break above this level could trigger a more relevant bullish bias, potentially challenging the longer-term downtrend.
   
• 69,000 – Near-term barrier: A neutral level aligned with the 50-period moving average. Price action around this level could continue to support a sideways trading environment in the short term.
   
• 64,000 – Key support: A recent low and the main downside barrier. A consistent break below this level could reactivate a dominant bearish bias and extend the downtrend in the short and medium term.
   

Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25