China Tariffs Persist, Oil's Retracement Deepens
Despite the delayed tariff agreements between the US, Mexico, and Canada, the 10% US tariffs on Chinese imports remain in effect as of today. Meanwhile, bearish sentiment dominates crude oil, with prices dipping back below $72
Share this:
Key Market Events
- OPEC shifts reliance from IEA sources to Kpler, OilX, and ESAI
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI miss expectations, while US ISM PMI surges to near two-year highs
- 10% US tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place
- Oil prices drop below $72 following a short-lived spike on tariff concerns
OPEC JMMC Meeting Highlights
At its first meeting of 2025, OPEC upheld the production quotas agreed upon in December 2024 as the impact of the Trump administration on the oil market remains uncertain, with risks stemming from tariffs, sanctions, and potential overproduction. A notable shift for OPEC in 2025 is its decision to move away from IEA data sources in favor of Kpler, OilX, and ESAI. But who are they?
- Kpler: Provides real-time data and analytics on global commodity markets, including energy, maritime, and trade sectors.
- OilX: Combines traditional oil statistics with real-time satellite and maritime intelligence to offer the most precise oil market assessments.
- ESAI: A network of environmental professionals and researchers, facilitating communication and insights in the energy and environmental sectors.
US & Chinese Economic Indicators
On Monday, the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations, coming in at 50.1, hovering at the borderline expansion level. Meanwhile, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9, reaching its highest level since October 2022 and surpassing the 50-expansion threshold.
Why It Matters: • ISM PMIs are considered early indicators of economic growth, with implications for inflation trends and oil demand potential.
Crude Oil Forecast: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
Crude oil dipped below $72 following a short-lived rally on tariff concerns. The next key support levels to watch are $69.50 and $66. A deeper decline could signal the start of a more extended bearish trend.
Market Bias: Despite current weakness, the support zone—intact since December 2021—suggests a neutral-to-bullish outlook, unless a decisive break and close below $66 occurs.
Bearish Breakout Scenario: If oil breaks below $66, downside targets align with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone of the 2020-2022 uptrend, pointing to $60 and $55 as the next potential levels.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
Related tags:
Latest market news
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises after cooler-than-expected inflation data
U.S. stocks are rising and Treasury yields are falling after data showed that inflation increased at a cooler pace than expected, while U.S. consumer spending rose again in August.
Treasury Yields Lose Momentum as Energy ETF Retreats
The 10-year Treasury yield is testing a resistance zone respected since the 1920s, as bearish RSI divergence signals fading upside momentum.
GBP/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch 300926
GBP/USD: Can Stronger UK Growth Offset the Dollar’s Advantage? Oil: Supply Recovery Challenges the Geopolitical Premium.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.