Crude Oil Week Ahead: Tariff Risks, OPEC Report, and US CPI
Crude Oil Week Ahead: As price spikes on oil remain short lived, the broader bearish impact of tariffs is supporting oil prices through their bearish trajectory, with possible alterations to OPEC forecasts and monthly reports in 2025.
Share this:
Key Events to Watch:
- Chinese CPI, PPI, and new loan data
- Trump tariff negotiations (Monday or Tuesday)
- Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on semiannual monetary policy
- US CPI and FOMC member insights
Chinese Data vs. Tariff Risks
China’s short-term economic boost may have ended as the trade war with the US intensifies. Initial tariff headlines caused brief price spikes, but their broader economic impact remains contractionary, reducing oil demand potential. Chinese inflation for January is expected to rise due to pre-tariff economic activity and export boosts, while new loans remain uncertain amid heightened risks and US rivalry. However, given China’s strong innovation-driven economy, resilience against US headwinds can be expected.
US Economic Data vs. Tariff Risks
US non-farm payrolls fell to 143K, below the 169K forecast, while unemployment dropped to an eight-month low of 4.0%, leaving markets uncertain. Key indicators between next week’s US CPI and Powell’s testimony will shape inflation expectations and their impact on economic growth and crude oil demand. However, with Trump advocating lower prices and high production, a bearish outlook dominates US crude markets.
OPEC Monthly Report vs. Tariff Risks
OPEC’s January 2025 report maintained a 1.4M barrel demand projection, with 0.1M from OECD nations and 1.3M from non-OECD. However, ongoing tariff and trade war risks may lead to downward revisions. Tariffs increase costs, slow economic growth, and disrupt supply chains, while geopolitical tensions and potential trade retaliation could cause short-term price spikes. Nonetheless, the overall bearish trend persists.
Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties
Crude Oil Week Ahead: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
With tariff headlines shifting towards negotiations, oil briefly spiked above $72 before retreating toward the key support between $70 and $69.5. Bearish momentum remains dominant, and a close below $69.5 could extend losses toward $66, $64, $60, and $55. On the upside, short-lived spikes may occur as oil approaches a four-year support zone dating back to December 2021, with key resistance levels at $72, $76, and $80.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
Related tags:
Latest market news
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises after cooler-than-expected inflation data
U.S. stocks are rising and Treasury yields are falling after data showed that inflation increased at a cooler pace than expected, while U.S. consumer spending rose again in August.
Treasury Yields Lose Momentum as Energy ETF Retreats
The 10-year Treasury yield is testing a resistance zone respected since the 1920s, as bearish RSI divergence signals fading upside momentum.
GBP/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch 300926
GBP/USD: Can Stronger UK Growth Offset the Dollar’s Advantage? Oil: Supply Recovery Challenges the Geopolitical Premium.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.