DAX forecast: German shares stumble on SAP slump

Global markets were mixed in the first half of Thursday’s session, but overall sentiment remained fairly constructive. US index futures edged higher after forecast-beating earnings from Meta helped offset weakness in Microsoft, keeping Nasdaq 100 futures hovering near record territory. In contrast, Germany’s DAX came under pressure after a sharp sell-off in SAP, which knocked more than 1% off the index. Despite today’s dip, the overall DAX forecast still remains positive, in line with global risk appetite, unless we see a more convincing shift towards risk-off conditions. Elsewhere, commodity markets continued to steal the spotlight. Silver surged past $120 for the first time, gold pushed on towards $5,600, and copper jumped more than 6%. Energy stocks also found support as WTI crude climbed to $65 and Brent approached $70 a barrel. This helped resource-heavy indices like the FTSE 100 outperform, with the UK benchmark edging closer to record highs.

 

FTSE nears record as DAX slides over 1%

 

In Europe, the main drag on sentiment came from German software giant SAP, whose shares plunged 15% — their biggest one-day fall in over five years. The company reported much weaker-than-expected growth in its cloud contract backlog for the fourth quarter and warned that growth is likely to slow slightly in 2026. Given SAP’s heavy weighting in the index, the DAX took the biggest hit among major European markets. By contrast, rising commodity prices lifted mining and energy stocks, which explains why the FTSE 100 looked far more resilient in comparison.

 

All about commodities right now

 

That said, it’s not all plain sailing for risk assets. Rising geopolitical tensions around Iran, combined with a volatile US dollar, are keeping investors cautious. The dollar index has been sliding sharply and is on track for its worst month since last April, continuing a trend where the greenback has struggled to behave like a traditional safe haven.

 

Instead, investors have been favouring tangible assets such as precious metals. Gold and silver have both benefited from this shift, while oil prices have been supported by escalating tensions in the Middle East.

 

Brent crude hit $70 for the first time since September after US President Donald Trump warned Iran to strike a nuclear deal or face possible military action. Any escalation could threaten oil flows from a region that accounts for roughly a third of global supply. Traders are also pricing in the risk of Iranian retaliation, including potential disruption through the Strait of Hormuz — a key artery for global energy markets.

 

DAX forecast: Technical analysis

 

From a technical perspective, the DAX forecast still looks broadly constructive, despite today’s sell-off. The index is coming off a series of record highs and, structurally, the trend remains firmly bullish. We’ve seen a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, and the recent breakout from a multi-month consolidation suggests the bigger picture is still pointing upwards.

 

 

For now, this pullback looks more like a pause than the start of anything more sinister. Some traders may even see it as another classic “buy the dip” scenario, although the risk of a deeper correction can’t be completely dismissed — especially with commodity markets potentially signalling something big might happen soon.

 

In terms of key levels, the area between 24,400 and 24,770 stands out as the first major support zone. This was a previous resistance area and marks the highs from July and October 2025, so it’s a logical place for buyers to step in. Below that, 24,000 is the next level to watch, where both a bullish trend line and the 200-day moving average come into play.

 

If those levels were to give way, the conversation would quickly shift towards whether a more meaningful top is forming. For now, though, the benefit of the doubt remains with the bulls.

 

On the upside, immediate resistance sits around the psychological 25,000 mark, followed by the 25,200 area. Beyond that, there’s very little in the way of technical resistance until the all-time high at 25,512 — which keeps the medium-term DAX forecast tilted to the upside, despite today’s wobble.

 

 

 

 

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R