DAX Holds 24,000 as Triangle Forms Amid Trade Uncertainty

Equities:

US stocks closed mixed on Thursday. The Nasdaq 100 (+0.3%) outperformed, supported by Alphabet’s earnings, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.4%) lagged. Alphabet rose 1%, but Tesla dropped 8.2%, contributing to sector divergence: Communications gained while Consumer Discretionary and Materials fell. Dow Inc. (-17.5%) was a major drag following poor results.

Tariffs & Trade:

• Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is in a good position with China on trade and will address China’s purchases of sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil.
• UK PM Starmer plans to press President Trump for lower tariffs on UK steel.
• India’s Commerce Minister said a trade deal with the US is progressing well and could be finalized before the August 1 deadline.
• President Trump visited the Fed, reiterated his push for lower rates, and called the meeting with Powell “productive.”

Currencies & Rates:

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) edged higher after mixed PMI data and falling jobless claims.
• EUR/USD hovered near prior lows after post-ECB fluctuations. ECB officials reportedly set a high bar for a September rate cut.

Commodities:

• Crude edged higher but gains were capped amid reports Chevron may resume oil pumping in Venezuela.
• The US may issue limited licenses to PDVSA’s foreign partners, including Chevron, though officials denied confirming any specific licenses.
• Spot gold was subdued after the dollar reversed its earlier losses.
• Bitcoin slipped, nearing $115,000.

Geopolitical:

• French President Macron announced France will recognize a Palestinian state in September.
• Israeli leaders strongly condemned Macron’s announcement, calling it a threat to their national security.
• The US also rejected Macron’s plan.
• Military tensions escalated between Thailand and Cambodia with reports of border clashes and civilian casualties. Thailand accused Cambodia of using long-range weapons on civilian areas.

Economic Data:

• Germany Ifo (July):
  • Business Expectations: 91.1 (vs. 90.7 prior)
  • Current Assessment: 86.7 (vs. 86.2 prior)
  • Business Climate Index: 89.0 (vs. 88.4 prior)
• US Durable Goods Orders (June): -10.4% (vs. +16.4% prior) – a significant drop in monthly growth.

DAX Technical Analysis 4 hour chart

The Germany 40 index (DAX) is currently trading within a descending triangle pattern, with the price recently testing the lower boundary near 24,000, which aligns closely with the 100 and 200 EMA supports. Despite the downward sloping resistance line capping recent highs, the price has so far held above the rising support line formed since late June, indicating the consolidation phase is not yet broken.

Momentum indicators show mixed signals: the RSI is near 41, suggesting bearish pressure but not yet oversold, while the Stochastic RSI is in oversold territory, hinting at a possible near-term rebound. If the price manages to hold above the 24,000 support zone and reclaim the 50 EMA near 24,250, bulls could push for a retest of the upper trendline. A break below the ascending support, however, could trigger further downside toward 23,800 or lower.