DAX Holds 25,000 as Bank Earnings, Inflation Data and Iran Tensions Drive Markets

Marketbrief | 14. July 2026

European equity markets are off to a subdued start to trading as investors weigh between continued robust risk appetite and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. U.S. futures traded mixed overnight after the U.S. carried out military strikes against targets in Iran for the third night in a row. In addition, President Trump announced the re-establishment of a U.S. naval blockade against Iran and brought into play fees for merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Today's trading day is also marked by the start of the US reporting season for the second quarter. With JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, the largest US banks present their figures. The findings will provide important insights into the health of the U.S. economy – from credit demand to consumption to investment banking activity. At the same time, attention is focused on the US consumer price data for June and the hearing of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh before Congress. Both events could have a significant impact on interest rate expectations for the coming months and thus determine the direction of global equity markets.

The technology sector also remains in focus. According to media reports, Nvidia has  significantly restricted the circle of Asian customers who will have access to its AI chips. The background is tightened US export controls against China and other markets. The development shows that geopolitical factors are increasingly influencing the global semiconductor industry. For European investors, this remains particularly important for companies such as Infineon and the entire AI value chain.

DAX outlook

The DAX is currently struggling with the psychologically important mark of 25,000 points. After a strong recovery on Monday, the index rose above 25,100 points at times, but lost momentum in the further course of trading. Profit-taking at the end of trading pushed the leading index back again, so that Xetra trading ended at 25,023 points. The weakness initially continued in early Tuesday trading.

In terms of charts, the short-term picture remains subdued. The DAX is currently moving between important moving averages, with the 100 line in the four-hour chart at around 24,979 points being the decisive support zone. A sustained break of this mark could trigger further selling and bring the areas around 24,900 and 24,800 points into focus. On the upside, the short-term resistance at 25,015 points remains decisive. Only a clear breakout above 25,150 points would significantly brighten the short-term technical picture.

DAX individual stocks in focus

Among the DAX stocks, cyclical and more defensive stocks were in the foreground at the start of the week. BASF topped the list of winners with a gain of 3.66% and benefited from the stabilization in the raw materials environment and rising energy prices. Brenntag (+3.58%) and Deutsche Börse (+2.73%) were also strong.

On the losing side were MTU Aero Engines (-2.85%), Infineon (-2.74%) and Rheinmetall (-2.60%). Semiconductor stocks in particular reacted sensitively to the news about the tightened Nvidia export restrictions.

Outlook: The US reporting season takes centre stage

Conclusion

For today's trading, three topics are in focus: the US inflation data, the results of the major US banks and the further development of the conflict between the USA and Iran. For the DAX, defending the 25,000-point mark remains crucial. If the inflation data is moderate and the US banks deliver solid results, the German benchmark index could launch a renewed attack on the resistance zone above 25,100 points. A negative surprise in inflation or a further escalation in the Middle East, on the other hand, is likely to increase investors' risk aversion. The short-term outlook therefore remains neutral to slightly positive, with continued increased volatility.

Philip J Papageorgiou - Head of Investment Research

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