Weekly COT Report Dollar Bears Throw In The Towell
A summary of the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT) from CFTC to show market positioning among large speculators.
Share this:
As of Tuesday 17th September:
- Traders increased net-long exposure to the USD by $2.2 billion, taking bullish exposure to a 3-month high of $15.4 billion
- Bullish exposure to the USD index (DXY) was at a 29-month high
- Traders were the least bearish on AUD in 6-months
- Net-short exposure on NZD hit a record high
DXY: Traders are their most bullish on the USD index since April 2017. However, its sudden jump to new highs has been fuelled by a sharp decline in short positions, with bears closing -9,599 short contacts. We’re yet to see the index break to new highs, but bears fleeing could be the first steps towards such an event.
AUD: Traders are their least bearish on the Aussie in 6 months, having reduced gross-short exposure. That we’ve not see an increase of longs suggests it could be corrective behaviour as opposed to a turnaround, but worth noting none the less as prices remain near multi-year lows as bears lose interest. And this was despite that fact that Tuesday’s RBA minutes saw a higher chance of a 25 bps cut next month.
NZD: Net-short exposure hit a record high, although it was achieved on the closer of longs as opposed to initiation of fresh shorts. Still, with net and gross short exposure at record levels, it’s highly possible we’re at or approaching a sentiment extreme. So bears beware.
As of Tuesday 17th September:
- Minor changes to gold positioning saw bears remain sidelined
- Bearish exposure on copper hit a 6-week low
- Bullish exposure to palladium hit a 6-week high
Gold: Despite its epic rally, bears remain hesitant to commit and bulls remain defiant. With prices holding above $1500, it’s possible bulls are carving out a corrective low. So we’ll continue to monitor this key level as it could prove to be the springboard for gold’s next advance, or the trigger for a deeper correction..
Related analysis:
Week Ahead: US-China trade and Brexit back to forefront
As of Tuesday 17th September:
- Traders increased net-long exposure to the USD by $2.2 billion, taking bullish exposure to a 3-month high of $15.4 billion
- Bullish exposure to the USD index (DXY) was at a 29-month high
- Traders were the least bearish on AUD in 6-months
- Net-short exposure on NZD hit a record high
DXY: Traders are their most bullish on the USD index since April 2017. However, its sudden jump to new highs has been fuelled by a sharp decline in short positions, with bears closing -9,599 short contacts. We’re yet to see the index break to new highs, but bears fleeing could be the first steps towards such an event.
AUD: Traders are their least bearish on the Aussie in 6 months, having reduced gross-short exposure. That we’ve not see an increase of longs suggests it could be corrective behaviour as opposed to a turnaround, but worth noting none the less as prices remain near multi-year lows as bears lose interest. And this was despite that fact that Tuesday’s RBA minutes saw a higher chance of a 25 bps cut next month.
NZD: Net-short exposure hit a record high, although it was achieved on the closer of longs as opposed to initiation of fresh shorts. Still, with net and gross short exposure at record levels, it’s highly possible we’re at or approaching a sentiment extreme. So bears beware.
As of Tuesday 17th September:
- Minor changes to gold positioning saw bears remain sidelined
- Bearish exposure on copper hit a 6-week low
- Bullish exposure to palladium hit a 6-week high
Gold: Despite its epic rally, bears remain hesitant to commit and bulls remain defiant. With prices holding above $1500, it’s possible bulls are carving out a corrective low. So we’ll continue to monitor this key level as it could prove to be the springboard for gold’s next advance, or the trigger for a deeper correction..
Related analysis:
Week Ahead: US-China trade and Brexit back to forefront
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
USD/MXN Forecast: Peso Loses Momentum Ahead of Banxico Decision
Over recent trading sessions, the Mexican peso has started to show signs of losing strength against the U.S. dollar. This can be seen in the performance of USD/MXN, which has gained more than 1.7% over the last three sessions, highlighting the dollar's renewed strength against the peso.
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Selloff Nears Critical Yearly Support 9 23 2026
Euro has fallen seven of the past nine sessions, with stretched momentum raising the stakes as EUR/USD closes in on a major inflection zone.
GBP/USD forecast: US dollar surges as bonds implode
The US dollar continued to press higher deep into the European session, supported by the slump in the bond markets as yields broke out across the curve. Following the recent hawkish Fed rate hike, yield spreads between the US and the rest of the world has continually increased, and that motion continued today, helped in part by some forecast-beating US macro data and hawkish Fed commentary.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.