Weekly COT Report USD Exposure Hits A 6 Week High

Read our guide on how to interpret the weekly COT report

As of Tuesday 3^rd December:

• Large speculators increased net-long to USD by $19.8 billion, taking it to a 6-week high
• Net-short exposure to AUD was decreased by 8,9k contracts
• Traders were their most bearish on yen in 6-months
• Weekly changes for FX majors were all under 10k contracts, so minor adjustments overall

USD: Traders are their most bullish on the dollar in 6-weeks, although we expect this to have picked up since the report was compiled following Friday’s strong NFP print.

AUD: Traders reduced net-short exposure by -8.9k contracts following last week’s RBA meeting. Gross long exposure continues to trend higher and are at their most bullish level since June 2018. Whilst gross-shorts remain around the 80k-100k region, there’s potential for short covering (and therefor a higher Aussie) if data tracks the RBA’s optimism in the new year. That said, with so many traders remaining net-short, if also points towards the potential for gross longs ot capitulate short data fall short of expectations.

JPY: Traders are their most bearish on the Japanese yen in 6 months to underscore the risk-on vibe in recent weeks. Still, whilst gross-short exposure is trendling nicely lower, gross longs remain anchored around the 40k-50k range. Moreover, as gross-short exposure is now approaching levels previously associated with an inflection point (around 125k region) when we should be mindful for a reversal to occur over the coming weeks.

As of Tuesday 3^rd December:

• Platinum traders were their most bullish since September 2016
• Gold traders were their most bullish in 2 months
• VIX bears were squeezed at record highs

VIX: Whilst we can never be certain of the timing, one thing for sure is that when VIX hits a record high of bearish exposure, they’ll get squeezed at some point. And that’s exactly what happened last week when the VIX exploded higher. Whilst it may go on to mark the low of net exposure, take note that bullish bets on VIX remain on the side lines.

Read our guide on how to interpret the weekly COT report

As of Tuesday 3^rd December:

• Large speculators increased net-long to USD by $19.8 billion, taking it to a 6-week high
• Net-short exposure to AUD was decreased by 8,9k contracts
• Traders were their most bearish on yen in 6-months
• Weekly changes for FX majors were all under 10k contracts, so minor adjustments overall

USD: Traders are their most bullish on the dollar in 6-weeks, although we expect this to have picked up since the report was compiled following Friday’s strong NFP print.

AUD: Traders reduced net-short exposure by -8.9k contracts following last week’s RBA meeting. Gross long exposure continues to trend higher and are at their most bullish level since June 2018. Whilst gross-shorts remain around the 80k-100k region, there’s potential for short covering (and therefor a higher Aussie) if data tracks the RBA’s optimism in the new year. That said, with so many traders remaining net-short, if also points towards the potential for gross longs ot capitulate short data fall short of expectations.

JPY: Traders are their most bearish on the Japanese yen in 6 months to underscore the risk-on vibe in recent weeks. Still, whilst gross-short exposure is trendling nicely lower, gross longs remain anchored around the 40k-50k range. Moreover, as gross-short exposure is now approaching levels previously associated with an inflection point (around 125k region) when we should be mindful for a reversal to occur over the coming weeks.

As of Tuesday 3^rd December:

• Platinum traders were their most bullish since September 2016
• Gold traders were their most bullish in 2 months
• VIX bears were squeezed at record highs

VIX: Whilst we can never be certain of the timing, one thing for sure is that when VIX hits a record high of bearish exposure, they’ll get squeezed at some point. And that’s exactly what happened last week when the VIX exploded higher. Whilst it may go on to mark the low of net exposure, take note that bullish bets on VIX remain on the side lines.