Key Events to Watch
- Chinese CPI – Wednesday: Will deflationary pressures deepen?
- FOMC Minutes & USD Weakness: Possible policy clues and implications for oil demand
- U.S. Crude Inventories: Retesting 3-month highs, adding pressure to prices
As WTI trades back inside the 3-year downtrend channel established since the 2022 highs, the outlook has shifted to a neutral-to-bearish tone, with markets awaiting a decisive breakout.
Several macro and supply-side factors are reinforcing this stance, including OPEC’s planned unwind of voluntary supply cuts totaling more than 400,000 barrels per day starting in August, rising U.S. crude inventories nearing 3-month highs, and ongoing trade uncertainty tied to near-term tariff decisions.
Crude Oil Inventories:
Source: Forex Factory
Despite current downside pressure, several bullish factors are helping to hold prices and are worth monitoring:
- Continued U.S. dollar weakness could lend support to commodity prices.
- OPEC’s confidence in phasing out cuts suggests a more optimistic supply-demand outlook.
- Expectations for interest rate cuts and potential trade agreements may boost demand sentiment.
So what are the key levels I’m watching?
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Tradingview
As oil holds back within the 3-year down trending channel, a bearish-to-neutral stance persists in line with OPEC’s supply strategies. The latest oil drop found support above the 64-mark, aligning with the neckline of a previously formed inverted head and shoulders pattern that corresponded with the breakout above 70 during Middle East escalations. Now that we are back at that support and technical checkpoint, the scenarios are as follows:
Bearish Scenario: Should oil close below the 63.40 level, downside risks may accelerate toward the midzone of the established 3-year channel, aligning with the 60, 58, and 56 levels, respectively, before confirming projections for new 2025 lows.
Bullish Scenario: On the upside, if crude holds above the 64–66 support zone, it may recover toward the 69 and 72 resistance levels, where it is likely to challenge a fresh breakout attempt. Such a move could reshape the broader WTI outlook, either sustaining or overcoming the dominance of the long-standing down trending channel.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
