EUR/USD Surges in Asia as the USD Continues to Unravel
EUR/USD came close to tapping the 114 handle within minutes of cutting through 113 during thin Asian trade. Traders should keep an eye on the 30-year bond yield around 5% and the US dollar index around the 2024 low to assess the euros likelihood of a sustained breakout.
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Anyone expecting a quiet Asian session heading into the weekend was caught off guard as the US dollar continued to unravel at breakneck speed.
US dollar index futures gapped lower at Friday’s open and swiftly fell below the 100 handle, a key level it remains beneath as of writing. Volatility in the British pound was also elevated, leading to EUR/USD and EUR/GBP exceeding their daily ranges early in the Asian session—a rare occurrence indeed.
EUR/USD, US Dollar Index Analysis
How the US dollar index behaves around the 100 handle and the 2024 low is crucial in determining whether we will see a sustained move above 1.14 for EUR/USD. My sense at the moment is that, given the large moves in lower liquidity conditions, the US dollar index may be prone to a bounce after a shakeout. This would leave EUR/USD vulnerable to a pullback beneath its 2023 and 2024 highs.
Keep an Eye on US Bond Yields
Another key market to monitor is, of course, the bond market. Bond prices are under pressure as investors stampede for the exit, pushing US bond yields higher as they demand a larger premium for holding the supposed safe haven. The US 10-year has surged to 4.5%, but if there’s a level likely to break the camel's back, it’s 5% on the US 30-year.
On Wednesday, we saw the 30-year briefly spike above 5% in the Asian session, and within 15 hours, President Trump had caved, providing a 90-day pause for his aggressive tariffs. But with the pause already in motion and bond yields rising once more in the Asian session, it seems the effect of the pause is quickly fading.
-- Written by Matt Simpson
Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge
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