Gold’s $4k Test Ongoing Despite Monetary Mayhem Elsewhere

Gold Talking Points:

• Gold has tested $4k for five of the past six weeks and sellers have yet to hold a weekly close below the big figure.
• The past two weeks have shown higher-lows, illustrating a degree of defense at that price.
• I looked into the matter in greater depth in a video for StoneX TV, linked below.

Gold came into the year with a full head of steam, but 2026 certainly hasn’t gone that way for bulls as the past six months have seen sellers taking a strong swing at the matter.

Of late, however, the bigger item has been slowing volatility as gold price action has compressed, with the $4k level coming in to hold the lows. This was a price that bears shied away from on the initial portion of the pullback in March. And then again in early-June. What ultimately drove gold down for a $4k test as the FOMC rate decision on June 17^th but, so far, bulls have come in for a strong defense of that level.

From the weekly chart below, we can see where five of the past six weeks have wicks testing that level. This shows that while price may have dipped below during the week, buyers showed up, thereby exposing underside wicks on the weekly chart.

And for the past two weeks, buyers have shown greater anticipation by jumping in at higher-lows, alluding to the possibility that sellers are giving way to greater buying pressure and bulls are ramping up their appetite on the long side of gold.

Gold Weekly Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Gold Turn Potential

A slowing sell-off can lead to a bullish reversal, but it’s still too early to say that definitively. As traders, instead, the best that we can do is place a line in the sand and then implement an if-then statement, and if buyers do press up to a fresh higher-high, combined with the higher-lows shown in the above chart, we can get more evidence that a turning of the tides may continue ahead.

The levels that I’m tracking for this are at $4100 and $4200, both of which provided some form of resistance over the past month. If we see buyers make a push above that latter price, then we can move forward with the idea that buyers are showing a greater degree of control over the trend, and thus, may be on the cusp of resuming the broader bullish trend.

Gold Daily Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro