US futures
Dow futures 0.21%, S&P futures 0.02% & Nasdaq futures -0.22%
In Europe
FTSE -0.15% & DAX 0.3%
- US stocks steady near record levels
- US-Iran peace talks stall, Strait remains closed
- Five Mag 7 earnings this week & FOMC rate decision
- Oil rises as supply worries persist
US stocks steady near record highs ahead of busy week
US stocks are modestly lower on Monday as investors weigh ongoing developments in the Middle East and brace for a heavy week of Big Tech earnings alongside signals from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Peace talks between the US and Iran appear to have stalled after Donald Trump cancelled a planned diplomatic visit, dealing a blow to prospects for progress. However, Iran has reportedly reached out via intermediaries, suggesting a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with nuclear negotiations to follow at a later stage.
US earnings season is picking up pace, with five of the “Magnificent Seven” reporting this week. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms will report on Wednesday after the close, followed by Apple on Thursday, while NVIDIA reports later in May.
Of the companies that have reported so far, 81.3% have beaten expectations, above the prior quarter average of 78.1%. However, forward guidance may be less reliable, as it reflects only limited disruption from the conflict, with the outlook for oil prices remaining highly uncertain.
Attention will also be on the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged, but its guidance will be key. Markets are currently pricing in just a 35% probability of a rate cut this year, reflecting inflation concerns driven by higher oil prices.
Corporate movers
Qualcomm is trading around 12% higher on reports it could partner with OpenAI to develop AI-driven smartphone chips.
Domino's Pizza is falling around 4% after its US sales outlook disappointed, with expected growth of 0.9% versus forecasts of 2.3%.
Adobe is down about 1% after Mizuho downgraded the stock to neutral, citing rising competition and potential margin pressure.
Intel is moving higher, extending gains following a strong post-earnings rally.
S&P 500 – Technical analysis
The S&P 500 has recovered from its 6,310 low in 2026, rising sharply to fresh record highs around 7,175. The RSI is in overbought territory, suggesting a period of consolidation may follow before further upside.
Buyers will look towards 7,200 as the next resistance level.
On the downside, support is seen at 7,050 (last week’s low), followed by the key psychological level.
FX markets – USD softens GBP/USD rises
The US dollar is easing after last week’s gains as investors reassess the outlook for the Middle East and look ahead to central bank decisions.
EUR/USD is rising amid the weaker dollar, despite German consumer confidence falling to a three-year low, reflecting concerns over inflation and income pressures.
GBP/USD is also higher despite weak UK retail data. According to the Confederation of British Industry, retail sales recorded their sharpest decline in over 40 years, with the index falling to -68 in April from -52 in March. This comes ahead of the Bank of England rate decision, where policymakers are expected to hold rates steady.
Oil – Focus on supply risks
Oil prices are rising on Monday, extending last week’s gains, with WTI moving back towards $100 per barrel amid ongoing US–Iran tensions and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
If the situation remains unchanged, oil could rise further towards $125 per barrel, with an estimated 10–13 million barrels per day still disrupted from global supply.
However, any progress in peace talks, government intervention, or demand destruction could trigger a pullback in prices.
