Kiwi crushed as RBNZ delivers shock hold
RBNZ shocks, Kiwi collapses. NZD/USD faces a major technical test while AUD/NZD surges on diverging interest rate expectations. Is there more to come?
RBNZ
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AUD/USD, NZD/USD face explosive CPI, RBNZ doubleheader
Aussie and Kiwi have gone remarkably quiet ahead of Australian inflation data and RBNZ decision. With substantial tightening priced and both events capable of generating major FX swings, Wednesday could deliver a volatility eruption in the antipodes.
New Zealand inflation report puts spotlight on hawkish RBNZ pricing
New Zealand's recovery is barely underway, yet markets have priced a series of RBNZ rate hikes. Thursday's inflation report will put that hawkish recalibration under the microscope.
NZD/USD pressure mounts as payrolls looms large
NZD/USD has fallen sharply as Fed rate expectations reset higher, but extreme downside stretch and major support raise the risk of a violent counter-trend rebound.
NZD/USD: US yield advantage keeps pressure on the Kiwi
NZD/USD has become unusually sensitive to relative front-end rates, with the US two-year yield advantage now near historically extreme levels.
RBNZ Preview: The Hike Is Priced. The Track Is What Matters
Kiwi volatility could ramp up around today’s RBNZ decision, even with the rate hike almost fully priced. Falling inflation expectations and softer-than-forecast economic data raise the risk that the Bank’s updated OCR track fails to match hawkish market pricing.
NZD/USD Forecast: RBNZ Survey Threatens to Break the Calm
The Kiwi has gone quiet, but the RBNZ Survey of Expectations out soon may provide the catalyst traders have been waiting for.
NZD/USD forecast: Jobs report weakens case for aggressive RBNZ hikes
Stronger employment wasn't enough to offset a surge in labour force participation, leaving unemployment at its highest level in more than a decade. The report keeps a September RBNZ hike in play but casts doubt on the rate path beyond.
NZD/USD, AUD/NZD: Why the inflation beat may not be as hawkish as it looks
The devil is in the detail. While the headline beat expectations, the underlying inflation story may be telling traders something very different.
AUD/USD Outlook: Two-part rates play, one-part risk proxy
A pickup in US inflation expectations, renewed geopolitical tensions and another bruising session for technology stocks combined to leave the Aussie under pressure overnight.
RBNZ Means Business as Hawkish Shift Launches NZD
Markets went into the meeting pricing little chance of an immediate move. They came out pricing an aggressive tightening cycle as the RBNZ signalled it’s prepared to crush inflation risks at almost any cost.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD Forecast: CPI, RBNZ create volatility events but crude remains king
With swaps markets aggressively pricing further RBNZ tightening and traders still unconvinced the RBA will hike again in June, today’s event risk may prove critical for near-term Aussie and Kiwi direction.
New Zealand Dollar Forecast: US rates recalibration leaves NZD/USD clinging to 200DMA
Rising US yields, surging Treasury volatility and a hawkish repricing in Fed expectations have combined to hammer NZD/USD in recent sessions. With weak domestic data also piling up, the Kiwi is losing support from both offshore and local drivers.
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