FTSE 100, EUR/USD Forecast: Two trades to watch 04-14-2026

FTSE rises on US-Iran peace hopes

The FTSE, along with its European peers are moving higher on Tuesday, supported by renewed optimism that a diplomatic path between the U.S. and Iran remains open.

President Trump said Iran had approached Washington regarding a potential agreement, raising hopes of a lasting peace in the Middle East. He also noted that 34 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday — the highest level since the conflict began — helping push oil prices back below $100 per barrel and easing inflation concerns.

Chinese data has also been in focus, with the trade balance falling sharply in March amid a jump in imports driven by steadily growing domestic demand for AI chips and AI infrastructure. Growth in Chinese exports also slowed sharply as the US–Israel war on Iran weighed on global shipping activity and demand.

The trade balance fell to a US$51.13 billion surplus in March, below the expected $107.50 billion surplus and sharply down from the $213.62 billion surplus in February.

Exports rose 2.5%, missing expectations of 8.3% growth and marking the slowest pace since early 2025. Meanwhile, imports surged 27.8% in March, well above the 11.1% increase expected.

The data had little impact on the FTSE, but the KOSPI tech sector jumped over 6%.

UK Outlook

The UK economic calendar is relatively quiet, with attention turning to comments from BoE governor Andrew Bailey. Markets have been pricing in up to two rate hikes from the Bank of England in 2026, although Bailey has cautioned that expectations may be too aggressive unless inflation pressures prove more persistent. A less hawkish-sounding BoE could support the FTSE.

Corporate Focus

BP has indicated that its oil trading division is expected to deliver exceptionally strong results in Q1, benefiting from recent volatility and elevated prices in energy markets.

FTSE forecast – technical analysis

After running into resistance at the record high of 10,935, the FTSE rebounded lower to support at 9665, near the 200 SMA. From here, the price has recovered, rising above the 50 SMA and the multi-month rising trendline to a peak of 10,725.

Buyers will look to extend the recovery towards 10,935 and fresh record highs.

Support is seen at the 10,400, support zone, the 50 SMA and the rising trendline support. Below here, 10,100 support comes into focus, and 10,000. Below here, the 200 SMA at 9745 comes into play.

EUR/USD rises on Middle East optimism & ahead of US PPI data

EUR/USD is rising for a seventh straight day on Tuesday, supported by improving market sentiment and optimism around potential further peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. The pair is now trading at its highest level since the conflict began.

The U.S. dollar is extending its decline for a seventh consecutive session — its longest losing streak since December — as safe-haven demand fades on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough. Reports suggest negotiations between Washington and Tehran are ongoing, with expectations that Iran could move towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Attention is also turning to U.S. PPI data, which is expected to show wholesale inflation rising to 4.6% year-on-year from 3.4%, and 1.2% month-on-month from 0.7%. Persistently strong price pressures could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.

In the eurozone, inflation has picked up since the start of the conflict, strengthening the case for the European Central Bank to maintain a cautious or even slightly hawkish stance after pausing its easing cycle. Spanish inflation has been revised up to 3.4% year-on-year, while German wholesale prices rose 2.7% month-on-month, highlighting building price pressures.

This divergence — with the Fed expected to hold and the ECB potentially turning more hawkish — combined with reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar, is supporting EUR/USD.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak later today, alongside Chief Economist Philip Lane and several Federal Reserve policymakers, which could provide further direction.

EUR/USD forecast - technical analysis

EUR/USD ran into resistance at the 1.2080, 2026 high before rebounding lower, falling out of its rising channel. The price found support at 1.1414, the 2026 low, before rebounding higher above the falling trendline resistance, the 200 SMA and re-entered the rising channel.

Buyers supported by momentum will look to extend the recovery to 1.1830, the last February high. Above here, the February 9 swing high comes into focus at 1.1925 ahead of 1.20.

On the downside, support is at 1.1725, the lower band of the rising channel and 1.1675, the 200 SMA. Below here, sellers will look towards 1.16. It takes a move below 1.1450 to create a lower low.