Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Tempers Trump Sell-off
Gold prices are trading just 5% off the record high with the December range taking shape above uptrend support. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.
Share this:
Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- Gold prices rebound off uptrend support- December opening-range in focus
- XAU/USD threat remains for larger correction with broader uptrend
- Resistance 2736 (key), 2804, 2900– Support 2607, 2532, 2450/82 (key)
Gold prices are virtually unchanged since the start of the week with XAU/USD trading just above multi-year slope support. The focus now shifts to the December opening-range with the broader uptrend still vulnerable to a deeper correction while below the record high-close. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that the gold sell-off was, “testing initial trend support at the median-line- risk for near-term price inflection here.” XAU/USD surged nearly 7.3% off those lows before exhausting into the close of the month. A decline of nearly 4.3% rebounded off the 61.8% retracement of the November rally at 2607 last week with price holding a tight range (virtually unchanged) into the weekly / monthly open.
Weekly resistance is eyed with the record high-week close (HWC) at 2736- a breach / close above this threshold is needed to mark uptrend resumption towards subsequent resistance objectives at 2.618% extension of the 2022 range breakout at 2804 and 2900 / the upper parallel.
Support remains at 2607 with a break / close below the median-line needed to suggest a more significant correction is underway. Subsequent support objectives rests with the August high at 2532 and 2450/82- a region defined by the April high and the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 yearly range. Losses should be limited to this zone for the 2022 uptrend to remain viable with a close below the 52-week moving average (currently ~2361) ultimately needed to suggest a larger trend reversal is underway / put the bears in control.
Bottom line: Gold is trading just above multi-year uptrend support into the start of the month and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable to a larger correction within the broader uptrend. From a trading standpoint the immediate focus is on a breakout of the 2607-2736 range for guidance.
Keep in mind that we are in in the early throws of the December opening-range with US non-farm payrolls on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for guidance here. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.
Key US Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts
- Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
- Crude Oil (WTI)
- Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
- British Pound (GBP/USD)
- Euro (EUR/USD)
- Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
- Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
- US Dollar Index (DXY)
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Nikkei breakout accelerates as yen weakness returns
Nikkei has started October with a powerful breakout, helped by renewed yen weakness and strong upside momentum
AUD/USD hammered by US yields and fading RBA hike bets
US yields, dollar strength and fading RBA hike bets have combined to drive AUD/USD to fresh multi-month lows. The macro and technical bias remains bearish, although history suggests parts of the move are now reaching unusually stretched levels.
Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Resistance at $4200 Sets Up for NFP
It was a strong sell-off to start the week in gold and despite a Tuesday bounce, sellers are continuing to push following a resistance hit at the $4200 level.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.