Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Vertical as Trump Tariffs Risk Trade War
Gold prices surged for a sixth-week with XAU/USD hitting fresh record highs. Battle lines drawn on the weekly technical chart as the Trump tariffs stoke trade war fears.
Share this:
Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels
- Gold prices mark sixth-consecutive weekly advance to fresh record highs- Resistance in view
- XAU/USD rally fueled by Trump tariff tensions- U.S. CPI / PPI on tap next week
- Resistance 2900 (key), 3000/31, 3279– Support 2790/99, 2736, 2624 (key)
Gold prices closed a sixth-consecutive daily advance on Friday with the XAU/USD rally extending more than 10% from the yearly open. Concerns that the Trump tariffs could fuel a broader trade war have continued to bolster gold prices with the bulls marking fresh record highs into the close of the week. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable in the days ahead as the advance approaches uptrend resistance. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that XAU/USD had, “rebounded off uptrend support into the start of the month with the advance now within striking distance of pivotal resistance. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 2736- losses should be limited the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach above the high-close needed to mark uptrend resumption.”
Gold broke higher two-weeks later with price extending nearly 11.2% off the January lows. The rally is now within striking distance of uptrend resistance near 2900, and the focus is on a reaction into this slope IF reached. Note that weekly momentum has now closed back above 70 and keeps this push viable into the open next week.
Initial weekly support rests with the 2024 swing high / February objective monthly open at 2790/99- note that the 75% parallel converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and losses below this slope would suggest a more significant high was registered this week / a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support seen at the 2024 high-week close at 2736 with medium-term bullish invalidation now set to the objective yearly open at 2624.
A topside breach / weekly close above the upper parallel would likely fuel another accelerated advance towards the next major technical consideration seen at 3000/31- a region defined by the 2.272% extension of the 2011 decline and the 1.618% extension of the 2022 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: The gold breakout is approaching uptrend resistance at record highs on the back of a six-week rally. Looking for a reaction up here in the week ahead. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 2900- losses should be limited to this week’s low IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
Keep in mind that we get the release of key U.S. inflation data next week with CPI & PPI on tap. The market’s will also be reacting to expected announcements from President Trump on new “reciprocal” tariffs. It is promising to be an interesting week for gold prices- watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.
Key US Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts
- British Pound (GBP/USD)
- Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
- US Dollar Index (DXY)
- S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow
- Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
- Crude Oil (WTI)
- Euro (EUR/USD)
- Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
- Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
EUR/USD weekly outlook: FOMC and ECB to set the tone
The current backdrop is modestly bearish. On Friday, the EUR/USD closed modestly lower, down for the third consecutive day. The pair also posted a weekly decline after staging a modest recovery attempt in the previous week. Out of the past 8 weeks, the EUR/USD has fallen on 6 occasions. There is not much supporting factors for the single currency right now. So, the upside remains capped.
S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Forecast: Nasdaq Selloff Deepens as Dow Rally Stalls 10 24 2026
A failed S&P breakout and looming Nasdaq support test raise the stakes for next week’s Fed decision and October’s monthly close.
Gold Does Something it Hasn’t Done in a Year, is Larger Risk-Off Afoot?
With tech stocks getting hit harder last week there was collateral damage elsewhere, including gold as the metal closed below the $4k level for the week and that’s the first time that’s happened to spot gold in more than a year.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.