USD Majors, Oil, Gold, Equity Indices Weekly Technical Outlook

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks

• Technical trade setups we are tracking into the start of the week on the USD Majors, commodities, bitcoin, and equity indices as the war in Iran rages.
• Event risk on tap: war headlines, Japan GDP, US CPI & PCE, Canada Employment
• Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, March 16 at 8:30am ET
• Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), and Bitcoin (BTC/USD), and S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open.

US Dollar Price Chart – USD Daily (DXY)

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView

Notes: The US Dollar Index has been stuck below resistance for the past five-sessions at the 78.6% retracement of the November decline and the January high-day close (HDC) at 99.36/38. A breakout of the November downtrend has stalled here, and the focus is on this early-week pullback off lateral resistance.

Initial support rests at 98.55/69- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement, the August high-day close (HDC), and the May low. This zone is backed closely by 200-day moving average at ~98.34 with the near-term bullish invalidation now raised to the objective yearly open at 98.24.

A daily close above 99.38 is needed to mark uptrend resumption with the next major technical consideration eyed at the 2024 low, the August high, and the 2024 low-close at 100.16/34. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: The US Dollar breakout is testing resistance into the start of the week, and the focus remains on possible inflection of this zone in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 98.24 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 99.38 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind we get batch of inflation releases this week with the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the January Personal Consumption Expenditures on tap. With the surge in oil prices fueling inflation concerns, the focus will be on this latest pre-war update as traders continue to reprice the outlook for monetary policy. Fed Fund Futures are now pricing a 53% probability the next interest rate cut till be delivered in July. The Iran war headlines will remain central focus in the days ahead- stay nimble and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest US Dollar Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term DXY technical trade levels.

 

Japanese Yen Price Chart- USD/JPY 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Notes: The USD/JPY rally is faltering at resistance today near the January high-day close (HDC) and the 2025 swing high at 158.44/88. The focus is on possible inflection off this zone into early in the week with the immediate long-bias vulnerable while below.

Initial support rests with the 2025 HDC at 157.70 and is backed closely by the channel support (currently near ~157.40s). Broader bullish invalidation rests at the 156.37/68 pivot zone- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the late-February advance, the 61.8% retracement of the January decline, and the objective yearly open. A topside breach / close above this resistance zone exposes subsequent objectives at the yearly high at 159.46 and the April 2024 high at 160.21.

Bottom line: USD/JPY remains within the confines of a multi-week uptrend with the bulls testing resistance early in the week at 2025 highs. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 156.37 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 158.88 needed to fuel the next major leg of to the advance. Keep in mind we get the release of Japan Q4 GDP figures tonight with consensus estimates calling for a print of 0.3% q/q, up from 0.1% in Q3.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Notes: Gold prices remain vulnerable despite the ongoing turmoil in Iran with XAU/USD trading just above near-term support into the start of the week at the 38.2% retracement of the February advance near 5032. USD strength remains a headwind for the gold bulls and the threat remains for a deeper setback within the multi-week uptrend.

A break lower from here exposes the record high-week close and the February open at 4894. Note that the lower parallel converges on this threshold into the close of the week. Medium-term bullish invalidation rests with the 61.8% retracement at 4792 and losses below this level would suggest a more significant correction is underway.

Key near-term resistance rests with the 61.8% retracement of the most recent decline and the objective March open at 5257/79. Ultimately, a breach / daily close above 5343/78 would be needed to fuel another run at the highs. This level is defined by the 100% extension of the February rally and the record high-day close.

Bottom line: While the gold outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable to a larger pullback within the uptrend. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 4894 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 5378 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Keep in mind gold will be sensitive to both the incoming war headlines and the key inflation figures released this week from the US.

 

Economic Calendar – Key Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex