Oil Price Forecast: WTI Surges 22% to Six-Month high as Iran Tensions Rise– 66 Break at Stake

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly, Daily & Intraday Trade Levels

• WTI has rallied more than 22% from the December low, pushing prices to the highest level in six months amid renewed geopolitical risk and despite inventory glut.
• The bulls are struggling near the 66-handle, and the focus is on possible inflection off this zone into the close of the month.
• A sustained move above this threshold would mark resumption of the December uptrend, while rejection here keeps the near-term advance vulnerable.
• Resistance 66.29/40 (key), 6859, 70.27/63- Support 63.78/92, 62.57/66 (key), 61.44

WTI has staged a powerful rebound from the December lows, climbing to its highest level in six months as renewed tensions surrounding Iran inject fresh volatility into energy markets. The rally has been driven by a mix of geopolitical headlines and technical momentum, reversing earlier weakness tied to inventory data. With price now pressing into technical resistance, the focus shifts to whether buyers can sustain this momentum. A decisive push higher would signal that the recovery has further room to run, while hesitation at this level could mark the start of consolidation after an extended advance. Battle lines drawn on the weekly, daily, and 240min technical charts.

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Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Oil Price Forecast we highlighted a constructive outlook in WTI while noting that, “From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 61.44 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 66.40 needed to fuel the next leg of the rally.” Oil prices churned in the following weeks with price registering an intraday low at 61.86 before rebounding sharply last week. The bulls are once again trying to mount resistance this week at the September swing high and the 2023 close low at 66.31/40 and a weekly close above is still needed to fuel the next leg of the oil rally.

Concerns over the growing threat of a war with Iran are fueling the advance today with reports suggesting Tehran is unwilling to turn over its stockpile of enriched uranium. The headlines have eased the early-week decline spurred by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data which showed the largest weekly inventory build in three years. That said, markets remain attentive to the U.S. – Iran nuclear talks and developments here are likely to fuel volatility in the days ahead.

 

Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

Oil prices have rallied more than 22% off the December low with the advance taking prices to the highest levels in six-months. A look at the daily chart shows WTI trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork extending off the December low with price rebounding sharply today off the lower parallel. The outlook remains constructive while within this formation and the focus is on whether the bulls can mark a weekly close above this key hurdle heading into the close of the month.

Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; WTI on TradingView

A closer look at oil price action shows WTI rebounding off confluent support today at the 1.618% extension of the weekly decline and the 61.8% retracement of the most recent advance at 63.78/92. Broader bullish invalidation is now raised to the 38.2% retracement of the December advance and the 200-day moving average near 62.57/66. A break / close below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.

A topside breach of the weekly range highs exposes subsequent objectives at the 2023 low-day close (LDC) at 68.59 backed by more significant resistance at 70.27/63- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2023 decline and the 1.618% extension of the December rally. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached. The next technical consideration is eyed at the August 2024 low-day close (LDC) and the 2025 yearly open at 71.90/93.

Bottom line: WTI is trading into weekly resistance for a sixth day, and the focus is on the weekly / monthly close with respect to 66.40. The long bias is vulnerable while below this threshold. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to today’s low IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a break of the monthly high needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex