Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD 6-Week Winning Streak Faces Major Test at Multi-year Highs

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Short-term Trade Levels

• AUD/USD has extended its advance for a sixth consecutive week, climbing more than 7% from the January low and pressing into a key multi-year resistance zone.
• Price remains compressed beneath the 2023 close high, with overbought weekly momentum reflecting strength but also raising the risk of near-term consolidation.
• Price is now trading just below trend resistance near the January high, leaving the long bias vulnerable unless a breakout develops.
• Key event risk into the monthly open with Australian GDP and US retail sales & NFPs on tap
• Resistance 7136 (key), 7208/14, 7313- Support 7015 (key), 6962, 6913

AUD/USD has delivered an impressive multi-week advance, reclaiming ground steadily since the January lows and carrying price back toward three-year highs. The move has been persistent, with buyers defending dips and momentum remaining firm, but the pair now confronts a major ceiling that has historically capped gains. As the rally matures, attention shifts to whether bulls can force a decisive breakout or if the extended move begins to cool. The reaction at this resistance zone is likely to determine whether the uptrend accelerates or transitions into a consolidation phase heading into March. Battle lines drawn on the Aussie short-term technical charts.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook we noted that AUD/USD was trading just below uptrend resistance and that, “From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 6828 IF Aussie is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7077 needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.” AUD/USD registered an intraday low at 6897 two days later before turning sharply higher with the subsequent advance extending more than 3.6% off the monthly low. The rally exhausted into the resistance at the 2023 close high at 7136 (intraday high registered at 1.3747) before pulling back with Aussie ranging just below uptrend resistance for the past three weeks.

The bulls are now poised to mark a six-week advance with price holding just below resistance into the close of the month. Weekly momentum is holding deep in overbought territory, consistent with a constructive medium-term bias. However, as price approaches the March open within this extended zone, the risk of an inflection or consolidation phase increases. A clear breach / daily close above this key pivot zone would be needed to reinforce bullish continuation and suggest the broader uptrend is resuming in AUD/USD.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action shows AUD/USD trading into the upper parallel of the ascending pitchfork extending off the November low. Initial support rests with the February high-day close (HDC) at 7090 and is backed last week’s swing low near 7015. A break below this threshold would threaten a larger pullback within the broader uptrend towards the 38.2% retracement of the year-to-date range at 6962 and the 2024 HDC at 6913. Both these levels represent areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. Broader bullish invalidation is set to 6848/70- losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger reversal is underway.

A topside breach / close above 7136 exposes the next major resistance zone at 7208/14- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the of the broader 2021 decline and the 100% extension of the April 2025 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached- advances beyond this threshold would threaten another bout of accelerated gains with the next technical major consideration eyed at the 61.8% extension of the November rally at 7313.