Weekly Equities Outlook: US banks kick off earnings season

When do US banks report earnings?

This week, U.S. banks will kick off the Q3 earnings season on Tuesday, October 14, when JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup will reveal their Q3 2025 results, followed by Bank of America on Wednesday.

These figures come at a time when the US government shutdown continues, meaning that U.S. data is in short supply, so investors could scrutinize the figures of these bellwethers for further insight into how the economy is holding up.

Banking shares have performed strongly across the quarter, with the S&P banks index trading at record highs, reflecting optimism in the sector’s outlook and confidence in earnings expectations. However, this also means that expectations are high.

The sector has benefited from a resilient economy and a ramping up of corporate activity across the year so far. Investment banking and corporate activities are on the rise, helped by easing regulation and hopes of further monetary easing, while equities rose to record highs, aiding the trading desks.

Expectations are for investment banking and trading activity to rebound at a time when the outlook for net interest income, the difference between the interest received and the interest paid out, is deteriorating on expectations of further Fed rate cuts.

Attention will also be on loan growth, bad debt provisions, and economic commentary, which provide clues as to how the client base is holding up. Consumer confidence is lower, the jobs market has weakened, but the largest lenders are saying that consumers remain in good financial health, repaying loans.

JP Morgan Q3 earnings preview

Expectations are for JP Morgan, the largest bank by assets, to report Q3 earnings growth of 10.5% year on year to $4.83 a share on revenue growth of 4.8% to 45.39 billion U.S. dollars. Net interest income is expected to rise 3.1% to $24.1 billion, while loan loss provisions are expected in the region of $3.1 billion.

As for guidance, JPM is expected to guide towards NII of $24.7 billion in the final quarter of the year, bringing FY to $95.4 billion. This is based on revenue growth of 2.9% to $45 billion.

How to trade JPM earnings?

The JP Morgan share price trades in a rising channel, reaching a record high of 316 at the end of September. The price has eased lower, dropping below the mid-point of the channel to test support at 300, the 50 SMA. Sellers, supported by the RSI below 50, will look to break below this barrier to bring 290 into focus, the September low.

Should this support hold, buyers will look to recover towards 316 and fresh record highs.

Goldman Sachs Q3 earnings preview

GS will release Q3 earnings on Tuesday before the bell and is expected to see earnings soar 30.1% year on year to $10.99 a share, with revenue increasing 11% to $14.1 billion. Trading income is forecast to be up 8% at $3.2 billion.

For Q4, earnings are expected to fall 4.2% to $11.45 a share, while revenue is forecast to decline less than 1% to $13.8 billion.

How to trade GS earnings?

The Goldman Sachs share price has been trending higher, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows to reach 825, a record high. The shooting star candle and the RSI below 50 could suggest that a reversal is on the cards. The price has eased back to 764. Sellers will need to break below 744, the August high, to negate the near-term, and a break below 688 would create a lower low.

Bank of America Q3 earnings preview

Bank of America is set to report Q3 earnings on Wednesday. The bank is expected to report a 17% increase in EPS to $0.95, up from $0.81 last year, on revenue of $27.52 billion. The bank expects Q3 investment banking fees to rise by 10% to 15%. Investors will be looking for clarity over the pace of share buybacks and capital management, which could be addressed at the investor day next month.

The results come as the share price trades up 9% across the quarter.

How to trade BAC earnings?

After rising to a peak of 52.88 at the end of September, BAC has eased lower, breaking below the 50 SMA to 48.50, the July high. A break below here would negate the near-term run higher and expose the 50 SMA at 47.50. A break below here brings 44.50 into focus.

Should buyers defend support at 48.50, the price could recover above the 50 SMA and bring the 50 SMA level back into focus.