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Q3 Outlook: What to expect from the coming quarter?
Stocks and treasuries plunged in the first half of 2022 as inflation and recession fears rose. What can we expect in Q3? Here we look at the main themes set to drive the markets and how they could influence the different areas of the market.
What’s driving the global markets right now?
Everything you need to know about the current economic and monetary policy environment, and what it all means for financial markets
Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, AUD/USD
EUR/USD looks to PPI & investor sentiment figures. AUD/USD rises ahead of RBA rate decision.
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European Open: Gold holds above $1800 (for now)
Gold saw a false break of 1800 on Friday. The last time that happened in May, it marked a 6-week low.
Commitment of traders report (COT): Copper investors run to the exit
If copper truly is a barometer of economic health, then it is worth noting that large speculators were their most bearish on copper futures since March 2020 last week.
Week Ahead: RBA, FOMC Minutes and Non-Farm Payrolls
Volatility may pickup later in the week as the RBA makes its decision on an interest rate hike and the US releases FOMC Minutes, as well as NFP.
Forex Friday: Growth replaces inflation worries
In this week’s edition, we discuss the big drop in bond yields, and its impact on the financial markets. We also look ahead to a few macro events in the week ahead.
Core PCE not as bad as feared. But how much does it matter?
It probably won’t matter in isolation, as the Fed is now looking at a number of inflation data points to help determine the next direction for inflation in the US.
European Open: DAX retests 13k, UK GDP and German retail sales up next
Despite a false break of 13k last week, I see the potential for the DAX to continue lower and break that key level.
USD/JPY reaches its highest level since September 1998
Fed chairman Powell’s comments earlier may have sent USD/JPY to its highest level in 24 years, but they also sent the pair reeling later in the day.
Fears of global slowdown continue to weigh on Copper and AUD/USD
With more manufacturing due out later in the week, traders need to watch Dr Copper to help gauge the health of the economy. If copper continues its move lower, watch for AUD/USD to move lower with it!
Europe’s woes go from bad to worse
Sharp acceleration in Spanish inflation hit equities and sends EUR/CHF on brink of parity
European Open: Keep an eye on Germany's Regional CPI’s
The first (of several) regional inflation reports for Germany came in soft this morning, and that could be a lead for Germany’s broad CPI released at lunch today.
Core PCE: Still the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation?
US Core PCE is due out this week and if it is similar to other recent inflation data, it may be stronger than expected.
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EUR/JPY eyes 145 as ECB and BOJ policy divergence grows
The EUR/JPY should remain supported on the dips, keeping that path of least resistance to the upside.
Two trades to watch: DAX, USD/CAD
DAX rises despite falling consumer confidence. USD/CAD falls as oil climbs.
European Open: Gold remains rangebound, $112 pivotal for WTI
Gold remains stuck in a choppy range which makes it more appealing for range-trading strategies, whilst WTI has risen to a 5-day high and probes a key resistance zone.
Currency Pair of the Week: EUR/USD
With inflation data and manufacturing data from both the US and the EU this week, EUR/USD could be volatile.
European Open: 7300 in focus for FTSE bulls
Equity markets continued to rally in Asia as we approach the quarter end. And with futures markets also pointing higher then perhaps they can help the FTSE make it was to 7300.
Bank of Mexico hikes 75bps after higher inflation reading
Will USD/MXN continue lower? It may depend on whether the central bank decides to hike another 75bps at its August meeting!