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Gold outlook dimmed by stronger US data ahead of CPI and FOMC
It was a textbook reaction in gold in response to the stronger jobs and consumer sentiment data, with the metal falling, dollar and yields rising. It fell from around $2020 to a low so far of $2002. While down, it is certainly not out. It was only on Monday when it hit a new record high, albeit a short-lived one. Still, the downside could well be limited, especially if we see more evidence of waning inflationary pressures around the world.
USD/JPY analysis: NFP beats and dollar rebounds ahead of busy week – Forex Friday
Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week's edition, we will discuss the US dollar in light of the NFP beat, and ahead of next week's key macro events.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch
EUR/USD falls after German inflation and ahead of US jobs data. USD/JPY stabilises after yesterday's slump, US non-farm payroll data up next.
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US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Halts Six-Day Selloff Ahead of US NFP
EUR/USD bounces back from a fresh monthly low (1.0755) to halt a six-day selloff.
GBP/USD Analysis: NFP, CPI, FOMC, BoE on the Horizon
The GBP/USD is poised for a significant challenge in the upcoming days, spanning the end of this week and much of the next. Anticipation surrounds key data releases from both the UK and the US, with the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday and CPI data on the horizon. Moreover, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are set to announce their respective interest rate decisions next week.
Japanese yen analysis: USD/JPY plunges to test key support ahead of jobs data
This morning saw some big moves in USD/JPY and all other yen crosses. While these yen pairs all managed to bounce off their worst levels by mid-morning London session, they remained under intense pressure. The yen rally comes after BoJ Governor Ueda met Japanese Prime Minister Kishida earlier in the day, with investors anticipating a policy shift in Japan in the not-too-distant future.
EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
EUR/USD trades at a 3-week low on rate cut bets. Oil steadies after yesterday's steep selloff, China data could limit gains.
Nasdaq 100 ready to retrace? AUD/NZD approaches a technical juncture
We noted the tendency for US indices to begin a retracement on December 7th according to its seasonality, so it is interesting to note the 2-day bearish reversal on the Nasdaq on Wednesday. AUD/NZD is also on the watchlist for a potential long as it approaches a key area of support.
Crude oil analysis: WTI sinks further below $70
Crude prices remain on a slippery slope after the OPEC+ failed to impressive with their voluntary output cuts last week. From Thursday’s high point, oil prices have now fallen about 12% so far. On Wednesday, brent dropped below $75 and WTI took out $70, with both contracts falling in excessive 3.5% each on the day.
EUR/USD analysis: Euro softens as dollar picks up momentum ahead of key macro events
The EUR/USD faces a key test in the next week and a half. We will have lots of key data and rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank to come during this period. Ahead of these big events, the EUR/USD was down for the second consecutive week, eating into the impressive gains made last month. But will it bottom around the 1.0700-1.0750 key support area?
DAX, GBP/USD Forecast: Two trades to watch
DAX rises to an all time high on rate cut bets. GBP/USD look to BoE's Bailey & US ADP payrolls.
US dollar forecast: A closer look at the dollar’s performance in December
December tends to generate negative returns in December more than any other month, according to its seasonality. Today we take a closer look.
AUD/USD falls post RBA, crude oil bears eye $70: Asian Open
AUD/USD continued lower for a second day after momentum turned at a key resistance level. But if seasonality remains true, it could be on for a better performance in the second half of the month. And whilst crude oil touched a 5-month low, we're on guard for a technical bounce before its next leg lower towards $70.
British Pound Short-Term Outlook: GBP/USD Bulls Halted at Resistance
The British Pound bulls halted at resistance last week with the December opening-range now taking shape. Battle-lines drawn on the GBP/USD short-term technical charts.
EUR/USD, FTSE Forecast: Two trades to watch
EUR/USD falls ahead of EZ services PMI data. FTSE falls for a second day, miners under pressure.
S&P 500 forecast: A closer look at ‘Santa’s rally’
Santa’s rally refers to the tendency for equity markets to rally into the end of the year. Today we take a closer look at this phenomenon on the S&P 500.
S&P 500 forecast: SPX looks to data for policy clues as blackout period kicks in
S&P 500 is heading to a lower open amid a cautious market mood. After strong gains across November, on bets that the Fed is at peak rates and could cut next year, attention now turns to economic data for clues over the Fed's next move. US factory orders are due today but the main focus will be on Friday's non-farm payroll figures. Meanwhile Uber rallies on S&P 500 inclusion news and Coinbase soars as Bitcoin hits breaks above $40k.
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EUR/USD, USD/JPY Forecast: Two trades to watch
EUR/USD falls with rate cut bets in focus. USD/JPY falls to a 3-month low as geopolitical tensions rise.
Gold eyes record high, ASX probes resistance: Asian Open
Gold took full advantage of lower yields on Friday to accelerate into its record high, leaving the question as to whether it can break above this key milestone or present us with a desirable pullback first. The ASX 200 is also considering a break above its 200-day MA.
AUD monthly wrap: December 2023
AUD/USD was the strongest performer among the Aussie pairs we track in November. A combination of hawkish RBA alongside bets of Fed cuts in 2024 played nicely with our long bias. What will December bring?
Gold on a sec… gold just posted its highest monthly close on record
Gold just posted its highest monthly close on record, and now trades less than $40 from its record high set in May. With seasonality on its side, I suspect another crack at the record high could be in order. Although it does run the risk of a shakeout around the milestone level.
DAX, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch
DAX extends gains ahead of EZ and US inflation data. Oil holds steady with the OPEC+ meeting and China data in focus.
EUR/USD hits major resistance ahead of US inflation: European open
With inflation data for Europe and the US in today's European session, we take a look at EUR/USD to identify key levels and a directional bias.