Inflation

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AU inflation – a report to match Australia’s (hot) weather

There’s no escaping the fact that Australian inflation continues to point the wrong way for the RBA and consumers alike. And today’s report should quickly eradicate hopes of an RBA pause in February.

Research

European Open: GBP implied volatility spikes ahead of UK CPI and FOMC

Implied volatility for FX majors has risen ahead of today’s FOMC meeting - and most notably GBP as it also has UK CPI to contend with within the hour.

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December 14, 2022 05:47 AM

US CPI surprises for the second month in a row. What does it mean for the Fed?

Regardless of any new questions that may be raised, the one thing we know is that although inflation is still relatively high, it is moving in the right direction (lower)!

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December 13, 2022 04:01 PM

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European Open: Flash PMIs and US inflation on tap

The US dollar has continued lower overnight following Powell’s dovish comments, with US inflation data having the potential to extend or reverse some of its move.

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December 1, 2022 06:59 AM
"Newspaper snippet of jobs board"

NFP preview: Is the jobs market FINALLY slowing?

Based on the limited figures we have access to, there’s some evidence that the labor market has deteriorated over the last month...

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November 30, 2022 01:58 PM
Australian flag

Australian inflation fell… but just ‘weight’ a minute

Whilst Australia’s final inflation print for the year remains high by historical standards, it was much lower than expected at 6.9% y/y

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November 30, 2022 02:32 AM
Research

Inflation Is the Solution: The Wisdom to Accept What We Should Not Change

This report will make the case that policymakers should find the wisdom to accept what they cannot change: inflation is not only secular, but it is also the medicine that the global economy needs to escape its debt trap and solve the generational inequalities which tear apart Western countries.

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November 29, 2022 04:03 PM
Research

Growth concerns replace inflation woes

…But stock markets keep on rising for now.

Canadian inflation remains elevated. However, USD/CAD unfazed

Inflation in Canada is still high despite the Bank of Canada “only” hiking 50bps at its last meeting, rather than the 75bps that the markets expected

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November 19, 2022 03:12 PM
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Japan’s inflation hits the ‘40-year high’ club

Japan, long known for their lack of inflation, has just seen consumer prices rise to their highest levels since 1982.

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November 18, 2022 01:11 AM
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Technical Tuesday: EUR/USD, GOLD and Russell

In this week’s edition, we discuss the dollar, EUR/USD, gold and the Russell index.

Bank notes of different currencies

Michigan Consumer Sentiment worse than expected; Inflation components roughly in-line

The November preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 54.7 vs an expectation of 59.5 and an October reading of 59.9.

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November 11, 2022 05:05 PM
Research

There’ll be a lot of bond bears with sore heads today

Traders were net-short the 2-year treasure note by a record amount last week. Which means falling yields are likely driven by short-covering by bears with sore heads.

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November 11, 2022 12:01 AM
Energy

WTI’s trend break more good news re inflation

...after CPI came in much weaker

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November 10, 2022 05:42 PM
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European Open: EUR/USD falls below parity ahead of the US Core PCE report

After just one day above it, the euro is back below parity. And it could face further selling pressure if US inflation comes in hotter than expected today.

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October 28, 2022 05:16 AM
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European Open: EUR/USD falls below parity ahead of the US Core PCE report

After just one day above it, the euro is back below parity. And it could face further selling pressure if US inflation comes in hotter than expected today.

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October 28, 2022 05:16 AM
Australian flag

Australian inflation is the latest ‘hot beat’ on the dancefloor

Economic data beats are usually a good thing, unless it is in the guise of much higher than expected (and already elevated) inflation.

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October 26, 2022 04:47 AM

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Australian flag

Australian inflation is the latest ‘hot beat’ on the dancefloor

Economic data beats are usually a good thing, unless it is in the guise of much higher than expected (and already elevated) inflation.

default avatar
October 26, 2022 04:47 AM
Australian flag

AUD remains rangebound ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report

Australian inflation data is released tomorrow, and if it comes in hotter than expected – like it did on New Zealand – if adds another fly in the ointment for the RBA

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October 25, 2022 03:14 AM
Australian flag

AUD remains rangebound ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report

Australian inflation data is released tomorrow, and if it comes in hotter than expected – like it did on New Zealand – if adds another fly in the ointment for the RBA

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October 25, 2022 03:14 AM
Bank notes of different currencies

EUR/AUD could trade above 1.6500!

EUR/AUD has been moving higher on the back of interest rate differentials. Will it continue if the ECB hikes 75bps next week and the RBA only hikes 25bps the week after?

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October 19, 2022 08:39 PM
Bank notes of different currencies

EUR/AUD could trade above 1.6500!

EUR/AUD has been moving higher on the back of interest rate differentials. Will it continue if the ECB hikes 75bps next week and the RBA only hikes 25bps the week after?

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October 19, 2022 08:39 PM

Canadian inflation higher than expected. Should the BOC be concerned?

Today’s release of the September CPI report increases the chances that the BOC will hike rates by 75bps next week.

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October 19, 2022 03:55 PM