EUR/USD

EUR/USD falls ahead of EZ services PMI data. FTSE falls for a second day, miners under pressure.

EUR/USD falls with rate cut bets in focus. USD/JPY falls to a 3-month low as geopolitical tensions rise.

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

EUR/USD struggles below 1.09 ahead of manufacturing data & Fed Chair Powell’s speech. Oil falls after OPEC+ underwhelmed.

With inflation data for Europe and the US in today's European session, we take a look at EUR/USD to identify key levels and a directional bias.

With a host of inflation data from Europe and GDP data for the US, implied volatility has picked up to wake markets up from their post-Thanksgiving lull. Today we take a look at USD/JPY and EUR/USD for a potential setup.

Welcome to another edition of Technical Tuesday, a weekly report where we highlight some of the most interesting markets that will hopefully appease technical analysts and traders alike. In this week’s report, we will analyse the EUR/USD pair.

When yen bulls increase their long exposure by 40% in a week, it is probably worth noting. Especially when large speculators had pushed net-short exposure to a 6-year high the week prior. Every turning point must start somewhere, and I continue to suspect this turning point already has.

With the US dollar continuing to soften during Monday’s Asian trade, we now wait to see if it can help EUR/USD break above a key resistance level. But with the 200-day MA nearby for the US dollar index, it might may hit a bump in the road.

EUR/USD bears continued to trim shorts while large speculators added to longs. Whilst this might not be a bullish bet on the strength of Europe, it may well be a bet against the US dollar. And with the 2-year note holding above key support and shorts being trimmed, it hints at lower yields and a weaker US dollar.

The big story this week has been on the inflation front, with CPI in the US and UK both falling faster than expected, cementing expectations that the Fed and other central banks will no longer raise rates further. With a couple of other key US economic pointers also coming in weaker this week, such as industrial production and jobless claims data, as well as a sharp drop in oil prices, this has led to speculation that the Fed may start cutting rates sooner than expected in 2024

EUR/USD falls ahead of ECB President Lagarde's speech & US jobless claims. Oil falls for a third straight day after inventories rise.

The EUR/USD was a touch lower after Tuesday’s big rally. But more gains could be on the way as investors will be expecting the slowdown in US inflation will have much more to go as higher borrowing costs increasingly weigh on economic activity while housing rents slow further down in the coming months. Investors were awaiting the release of more US data later today, including retail sales, PPI and New York Manufacturing Index.

Whilst the 200-day MA stands in the way of further DAX gains, I suspect a move to 16k could still be on the cards. USD/JPY could also test 150 as part of its next leg lower, if incoming US data disappoints.

The EUR/USD and all other major euro crosses rose this morning, finding support from slightly stronger Eurozone data and the overall positive risk tone across financial markets we have seen in recent days. Investors were reluctant to punish the dollar more forcefully, however, as they awaited the release of key US inflation data.

Once again, the 1-day implied volatility levels for EUR/USD and USD/JPY have blown out ahead of a busy calendar. Central bank members from the Fed, ECB, BOE and SNB will hit the wires, European GDP is also on tap ahead of the key US inflation report.

Following Thursday’s bullish reversal in the dollar on the back of a soft 30-year Treasury auction and hawkish comments by Powell, the key question is whether those gains will last. I don’t think the Fed Chair said anything out of the ordinary, although that’s not to say the dollar won’t necessarily rise further. I mean, you wouldn’t expect him to turn decisively dovish just on the back of a couple of weaker data points.