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AUD/USD, ASX 200 rapid rebound gathers pace despite warning from rates markets

Despite lacklustre corporate earnings and rebound in US bond yields, the spectacular rally in AUD/USD and Australia’s ASX 200 only gathered pace in the second half of Thursday’s trading session, leaving both markets eyeing off potential topside breaks.

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February 15, 2024 11:33 PM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Employment slowdown a seasonal swoon or start of something sinister?

Australia’s labour market is undeniably slowing, bringing the prospect of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leapfrogging the US Federal Reserve when it comes to which central bank will cut interest rates first.

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February 15, 2024 01:42 AM
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Australia’s ASX 200 vulnerable on shakeout of soft-landing bets

Having been a major benefactor from the soft-landing narrative, the combination of higher global interest rates and stretched valuations has Australia’s ASX 200 index under pressure.

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February 14, 2024 02:44 AM

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Hang Seng’s suspect price action at odds with bullish narratives

Hang Seng futures don’t look like they’re about to embark on a face-ripping rally, no matter how cheap valuations are and no matter how much government encouragement is doled out.

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February 8, 2024 01:01 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 rebound on China market surge, not RBA

The RBA continues to see the risk that rates may increase again despite delivering updated forecasts showing faster progress in bringing inflation back to within its target band. For AUD/USD traders, there was more interest in the rally in Chinese stocks and currency than what the bank had to say.

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February 6, 2024 06:14 AM
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China’s stock market rescue brings in reinforcements

China’s “National Team”, the nickname given to state-backed entities tasked with rescuing markets, are doubling their efforts, upping purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) while restricting certain undesirable activities detrimental to stock prices. So far, indices such as the A50 are rallying.

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February 6, 2024 02:57 AM
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USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 vulnerable should yield differentials continue to compress

Bond yields, especially in the United States given the US dollar’s role as the global reserve currency, are perhaps more important to Japan than many other parts of the world.

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February 1, 2024 04:48 AM
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AUD/USD trading soggy as markets ramp up June RBA rate cut bets

Australian overnight index swaps (OIS) markets are fully priced for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points in June to 4.1%, adding pressure on AUD/USD following the release of a softer-than-expected Australian consumer price inflation (CPI) report on Wednesday.

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January 31, 2024 11:35 PM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200 bulls unfazed by retail sales slump

AUD/USD and the ASX 200 have ignored a larger-than-expected slump in Australian retail sales in December, adding to earlier gains in the wake of the release.

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January 30, 2024 01:51 AM
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USD/JPY, Nikkei trading heavy as news flow bolsters case for BOJ rate hike

Japan has received a raft of bullish economic news today, sending Japanese government bond yields higher while simultaneously placing downward pressure on USD/JPY and the Nikkei 225.

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January 24, 2024 05:41 AM
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Hang Seng, China A50 and CNH need sustained rally to turn bearish China narrative around

There is a real confidence problem right now towards China. And while the underlying reasons are complex, the easiest way to change the prevailing bearish narrative is for the price action to turnaround. Price leads narrative.

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January 24, 2024 02:16 AM
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ASX 200 priced for perfection nearing tricky technical test

Australia’s ASX 200 is rallying for a fourth session on the back of big gains in banks, healthcare and record highs on Wall Street, seeing it approach what some may declare to be a “death zone” for bulls based on price action of recent years.

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January 23, 2024 01:22 AM
Market chart showing uptrend

ASX 200, AUD/JPY bouncing back with improved risk appetite

With risk appetite back in full swing and market indicators on US recession risk providing a green light for the soft landing narrative, cyclicals such as Australia’s ASX 200 and AUD/JPY recovered last week, returning to the uptrend they’ve been in since the risk rival revival took hold in late October.

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January 22, 2024 12:44 AM
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China’s ‘National Team’ may be mobilising to stabilise its crumbling equity markets

China’s ‘National Team’ – a collection of state or quasi state-backed entities tasked by the government to smooth out financial market ructions when the prevailing price action is deemed desirable – looks like it may have been mobilised with China’s A50 ripping higher late Thursday and going on with the move today.

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January 19, 2024 04:49 AM
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ASX 200, AUD/JPY: Looking vulnerable to downside as risk appetite wanes

With markets starting to question how many rate cuts we’ll see from major central banks this year, sentiment towards China’s economic outlook deteriorating rapidly and riskier asset classes coming under pressures, Thursday shapes up as an important session for Australia’s ASX 200 and the AUD/JPY .

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January 17, 2024 11:36 PM
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Hang Seng trading like an index with significant risks attached

Declining population and accelerated house price falls combine with policy, geopolitical, earnings and credit risks to create the perfect bearish storm for Hong Kong's Hang Seng.

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January 17, 2024 05:00 AM
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USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: Higher US bond yields fueling upside momentum

USD/JPY has surged to fresh one-month highs, aided by a lift in US bond yields which widened interest rate differentials with Japan. Given the risk-off tone seen across broader markets, it’s clear the yen is no longer the safe haven play it once was.

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January 17, 2024 12:42 AM

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Recent Nikkei bulls face their first real test

Recent adoptees of a bullish Nikkei stance are facing their first real test with a distinct risk-off tone settling in across the Asian region, seeing the index reverse slightly after hitting fresh 34-year highs on Monday.

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January 16, 2024 01:21 AM
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Nikkei surge threatened by elevated USD/JPY reversal risk

While you can’t argue with the price action – sentiment is off the charts – there are some obvious downside risks that appear underpriced right now for Japan's benchmark share index.

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January 15, 2024 05:35 AM
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USD/CNH down, A50 up as weak Chinese inflation keeps stimulus hopes alive

Chinese inflationary pressures remain weak, whether it be upstream or for consumers. But with expectations for further stimulus from the Chinese policymakers baked in the cake, does it have implications for China’s equity market or currency?

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January 12, 2024 02:46 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: An inverse play on what happens with US 2-year bond yields

For cyclical assets that have run hard on the lower rates, stronger growth narrative, such as the ASX 200 and AUD/USD, a meaningful unwind of US rate cut bets could lead to an ugly and abrupt air pocket for these markets.

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January 11, 2024 12:37 AM
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ASX 200 set for highest close since February, eyes 2023 peak

Australia’s ASX 200 is on track to close at levels not seen since February. Entering what’s traditionally been a strong period over the past two decades, the combination of seasonality and bullish technicals may see the index retest the highs hit in February.

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December 19, 2023 02:00 AM
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ASX 200, Crude Oil: Cyclicals perking up after the Fed’s early dovish pivot

This preemptive dovish signal arrived far sooner than many market participants expected, reducing the risk the global economy may experience a hard economic landing next year. For cyclicals such as the ASX 200 and crude oil, this is good news.

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December 14, 2023 02:31 AM