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Nasdaq resilience built on hype and extrapolation of near-term trends

This is not the type of environment where dip-buying is likely to be a winning strategy on any timeframe other than the ultra-short-term.

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Today 05:29 AM
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Nasdaq100 Forecast: Stocks slip after jobless claims, ahead of Powell

US stocks are edging lower after jobless claims highlighted the resilience in the US jobs market. The data adds to evidence showing that the US economy is holding up better than expected. This combined with higher oil prices fuels bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. Fed Chair Powell is due to speak later.

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September 28, 2023 02:11 PM
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Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100: Indices remain in the hands of bond yields

The bond rout and sharp rise in yields continue to take centre stage for sentiment. And the longer this trend persists, the greater the odds appear for indices to finally roll over. Given three key US indices are showing signs of stability around their respective support levels, it brings the potential for a minor bounce over the near-term. But if bond yields keep rising, any such bounce could prove futile for bulls.

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Nasdaq, Nikkei, ASX: Breaking down as the ‘bondcano’ erupts

After threatening for weeks to generate a sizeable volatility event, the combination of higher bond yields and US dollar looks to have delivered.

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September 22, 2023 03:10 AM
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Nasdaq100 Forecast: The Fed's hawkish pause hits stocks

US stocks are set to extend losses as investors continue digesting the FOMC meeting. As expected, the Fed left rates on hold at 5.25-5.5%. However, the Fed also signaled to another rate hike this year and less easing next year. While the end of the hiking cycle is in sight, the meeting had a clearly hawkish bias which the market has latched onto. As if on cue, US jobless claims also came in much stronger than expected, supporting the Fed's stance.

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September 21, 2023 02:00 PM

USD/JPY hits a fresh 9-month high ahead of Friday’s BOJ meeting

The Fed delivered their hawkish hold, sending the US-JP 2-year yield differential to fresh cycle highs ahead of tomorrow’s BOJ meeting. And whilst the risk of verbal intervention remains from the MOF/BOJ, they may not actually intervene if the trend remains orderly. And price action on the USD/JPY daily chart suggests that it is.

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Nasdaq100 Forecast: Stocks inch higher on hopes that peak rates are here

US stocks are edging higher ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. However, the key focus will be on what comes next. The market is pricing in a 70% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged again in November. Yet with inflation still over 2%, resilience in the US economy and oil heading towards $100 the Fed is likely to keep the door open for further hikes if needed.

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September 20, 2023 01:46 PM
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Nasdaq 100 analysis: US stocks in for rollercoaster ride as focus turns to Fed

At the time of writing, US index futures were trading near their session highs, boosted by a small decline in global bond yields. Unsurprisingly, UK yields led the falls, and FTSE led the major indices higher, after UK inflation came in weaker than expected, further boosting speculation that the Bank of England may opt for a “dovish rate hike” on Thursday.

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September 20, 2023 01:27 PM
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Nasdaq 100: higher, flatter Fed funds profile a headwind for tech stocks

With a significant amount of earnings generated overseas, and whose valuations are susceptible to rising risk-free rates, the Nasdaq 100 stands out as one market that looks particularly vulnerable.

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September 19, 2023 05:19 AM

Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Stocks fall as Fed meeting comes into focus

US stocks are set to open modestly lower amid a cautious market mood, as investors look ahead to Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Fed is not expected to hike interest rates but after CPI jumped by the most in 14 months in August, the Fed could still maintain a hawkish stance. Meanwhile, the UAW strike continues keeping automobile makers in focus and chipmakers could stay under pressure on rising demand concerns.

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September 18, 2023 01:20 PM
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Nikkei 225 breaks higher on tech gains. Nasdaq 100 next?

Given the driver of the Nikkei’s performance, keep an eye on the Nasdaq’s performance given it continues to bump up against downtrend resistance on an almost daily basis.

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September 14, 2023 06:11 AM

Nasdaq 100 appears buoyant ahead of a key US inflation report

We are now in the second full trading week of September, a month which has averaged negative returns for the Nasdaq 100. However, the market looks buoyant ahead of a key US inflation report, which has the potential to extend the Nasdaq's gains just as easily as it could send it sharply lower when the data arrives.

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September 12, 2023 02:03 AM

Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Apple leads stocks lower, jobless claims fall

Stocks fall, led lower by Apple on fears that China will expand its iPhone ban and as jobless claims fall to the lowest level since February.

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September 7, 2023 02:40 PM
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Nasdaq 100 outlook: Stocks slip as strong ISM data boosts rate hike speculation

The Nasdaq 100 fell as bond yields pressed higher in the aftermath of a strong ISM PMI report, which also sent the dollar sharply higher across the board. With government bonds offering high yields, many investors are finding it difficult to justify holding growth stocks with stretched valuations.

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September 6, 2023 04:35 PM

Nasdaq100 forecast: Stocks rise after a Goldilocks jobs report

US stocks are heading higher after US non-farm payrolls posted a rise in job creation but cooler than expected average earnings.

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September 1, 2023 02:12 PM

Nasdaq 100 is on track for its worst month this year (NVDA)

As things stand, the Nasdaq 100 is on track for its worst month since December. And unless it can rally 4.4% or more over the next three days, it will snap a 5-month bullish streak.


The Nasdaq 100 gets an ‘Nvidia bump’ ahead of Jackson Hole

Nvidia share rallied 10% during after-hours trade thanks to another strong earnings report, and helped Nasdaq 100 future gap 1.3% higher at the open.

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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Nvidia optimism & easing treasury yields lift stocks

The tech heavy Nasdaq is set to lead the gains on Wall Street. Optimism surrounding Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday and a slight easing in treasury yields are helping to lift stocks.

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August 22, 2023 02:14 PM

Nasdaq 100 analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT) – 21st August 2023

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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August 21, 2023 02:07 AM
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Nasdaq 100 analysis: US stocks bounce but sentiment remains fragile

The major US stock averages tried to stage a bit of a bounce shortly after the case markets opened. The recovery looked like was driven by short-covering, although some would point to news that US industrial output jumped 1% in July, which was better than expected, as a reason behind the slight recovery. However, good data is not necessarily good news for stocks since it increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy contractionary for longer.

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August 16, 2023 03:22 PM
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AUD/USD, China A50 higher on China’s deflation (but will CPI keep falling?)

Whilst China’s deflating CPI number brings hopes of weaker inflation elsewhere, a quick at the chart reminds us that inflation spends very little time in negative territory.

Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Poisoned Apple Earnings Drag NDX Down to 15,250

The Nasdaq 100 has now put in a short-term “lower high” and “lower low,” suggesting that the year-to-date uptrend may be vulnerable to a deeper pull back in the coming weeks...


USD/JPY whipsaws after the BOJ adjusts its yield curve control (kind of)

USD/JPY hit a bout of volatility when the BOJ announced that they will aim to control the ‘flexibility’ of its 10-year target rate of +/- 0.5%, and allow the yields to rise above the ceiling by a “certain degree”. This is not a widening of the band as such, but a more relaxed approached to controlling the bond yield around it.