Nasdaq

This is not the type of environment where dip-buying is likely to be a winning strategy on any timeframe other than the ultra-short-term.

US stocks are edging lower after jobless claims highlighted the resilience in the US jobs market. The data adds to evidence showing that the US economy is holding up better than expected. This combined with higher oil prices fuels bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. Fed Chair Powell is due to speak later.

The bond rout and sharp rise in yields continue to take centre stage for sentiment. And the longer this trend persists, the greater the odds appear for indices to finally roll over. Given three key US indices are showing signs of stability around their respective support levels, it brings the potential for a minor bounce over the near-term. But if bond yields keep rising, any such bounce could prove futile for bulls.

After threatening for weeks to generate a sizeable volatility event, the combination of higher bond yields and US dollar looks to have delivered.

US stocks are set to extend losses as investors continue digesting the FOMC meeting. As expected, the Fed left rates on hold at 5.25-5.5%. However, the Fed also signaled to another rate hike this year and less easing next year. While the end of the hiking cycle is in sight, the meeting had a clearly hawkish bias which the market has latched onto. As if on cue, US jobless claims also came in much stronger than expected, supporting the Fed's stance.

The Fed delivered their hawkish hold, sending the US-JP 2-year yield differential to fresh cycle highs ahead of tomorrow’s BOJ meeting. And whilst the risk of verbal intervention remains from the MOF/BOJ, they may not actually intervene if the trend remains orderly. And price action on the USD/JPY daily chart suggests that it is.

US stocks are edging higher ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. However, the key focus will be on what comes next. The market is pricing in a 70% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged again in November. Yet with inflation still over 2%, resilience in the US economy and oil heading towards $100 the Fed is likely to keep the door open for further hikes if needed.

At the time of writing, US index futures were trading near their session highs, boosted by a small decline in global bond yields. Unsurprisingly, UK yields led the falls, and FTSE led the major indices higher, after UK inflation came in weaker than expected, further boosting speculation that the Bank of England may opt for a “dovish rate hike” on Thursday.

US stocks are heading higher after US non-farm payrolls posted a rise in job creation but cooler than expected average earnings.

As things stand, the Nasdaq 100 is on track for its worst month since December. And unless it can rally 4.4% or more over the next three days, it will snap a 5-month bullish streak.

Nvidia share rallied 10% during after-hours trade thanks to another strong earnings report, and helped Nasdaq 100 future gap 1.3% higher at the open.

The tech heavy Nasdaq is set to lead the gains on Wall Street. Optimism surrounding Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday and a slight easing in treasury yields are helping to lift stocks.

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

The major US stock averages tried to stage a bit of a bounce shortly after the case markets opened. The recovery looked like was driven by short-covering, although some would point to news that US industrial output jumped 1% in July, which was better than expected, as a reason behind the slight recovery. However, good data is not necessarily good news for stocks since it increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy contractionary for longer.

Whilst China’s deflating CPI number brings hopes of weaker inflation elsewhere, a quick at the chart reminds us that inflation spends very little time in negative territory.

The Nasdaq 100 has now put in a short-term “lower high” and “lower low,” suggesting that the year-to-date uptrend may be vulnerable to a deeper pull back in the coming weeks...

USD/JPY hit a bout of volatility when the BOJ announced that they will aim to control the ‘flexibility’ of its 10-year target rate of +/- 0.5%, and allow the yields to rise above the ceiling by a “certain degree”. This is not a widening of the band as such, but a more relaxed approached to controlling the bond yield around it.