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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

Gold nuggets

Gold needs plenty to go right to maintain its bullish momentum

Gold is knocking on the door of record highs heading into what has recently been an extremely strong period for bullion prices. But having rallied so hard since early October, it comes across as being priced for perfection near-term.

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November 29, 2023 02:25 AM

Yen bulls return, EUR/USD benefits from soft dollar bets: COT report

When yen bulls increase their long exposure by 40% in a week, it is probably worth noting. Especially when large speculators had pushed net-short exposure to a 6-year high the week prior. Every turning point must start somewhere, and I continue to suspect this turning point already has.

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Gold, AUD/USD: Softer US dollar and bond yields provide window for upside

A softer US dollar has helped AUD/USD and gold push towards key technical levels, suggesting the near-term price performance may determine their longer-term trajectory as we head towards 2024.

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November 26, 2023 11:23 PM

Gold struggling despite softer US dollar ahead of key long-bond auction

Gold faces an interesting start to the week with the US dollar falling to fresh two-month lows ahead of a key US Treasury auction, the latter providing an obvious catalyst that could dictate whether we see a retest of resistance above $2000.

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November 20, 2023 03:32 AM

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Nasdaq, crude oil analysis: COT report – Nov 20, 2023

EUR/USD bears continued to trim shorts while large speculators added to longs. Whilst this might not be a bullish bet on the strength of Europe, it may well be a bet against the US dollar. And with the 2-year note holding above key support and shorts being trimmed, it hints at lower yields and a weaker US dollar.


Gold, USD/JPY: Batter up, bond auctions. It’s your turn to steal the spotlight

In a week when there’s little market moving macroeconomic events scheduled, fresh US Treasury auctions are likely to steal the spotlight. Yield sensitive assets such as gold and USD/JPY will be paying particularly close attention.

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November 17, 2023 01:59 AM
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AUD/USD, Crude Oil: Cyclicals swoon as global economic concerns intensify

While AUD/USD and WTI are two separate assets, their underwhelming performance recently is undeniably linked: global economic growth concerns are intensifying.

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November 16, 2023 11:02 PM

Crude oil looks heavy despite the rollicking risk rally in Asia

It’s noticeable how liquid cyclical assets have not been able to extend the rally sparked by the soft US CPI report for October, including crude oil which is struggling to muster a bid.

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November 15, 2023 05:15 AM

EUR, AUD, CAD, WTI analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)

Large speculators increased their gross-long exposure to AUD/USD futures by 17.1% and trimmed shorts by -2.9% on the day of the RBA’s last hike. And this could be a significant development when you consider net-short exposure recently hit a record level of bearishness just six weeks ago, yet prices defied bears with a sustainable break beneath 63c.

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November 14, 2023 01:56 AM

Gold vulnerable as upside risks for US yields build

US benchmark bond yields look like they may have bottomed in the near-term, an outcome that may generate additional headwinds for gold at time when it’s already struggling.

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November 13, 2023 06:25 AM
Downward trend

AUD/USD, gold: Reversal roadblocks loom as prices near key levels

AUD/USD and gold have struggled in November, giving back some of the gains achieved in late October. With both sitting near key levels, we look at the prospects for a bounce or extension of the pullback in the days ahead.

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November 8, 2023 11:17 PM
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Crude Oil Analysis: WTI and Brent Dump to Multi-Month Lows

The bullish supply-demand picture from the third quarter has reversed, driving crude oil prices sharply lower so far this week

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Nasdaq 100, WTI crude oil: Divergence beckons as lead economic indicators roll over

It feels like we’ve reached the part of the economic cycle where the pain sets in. For the Nasdaq and crude oil, such a scenario points to the likelihood of divergent performance over the medium-term.

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November 8, 2023 12:36 AM

Gold looks tired in an environment where it should be thriving

Gold has four powerful fundamental positives working for it right now yet it can’t muster even a modest bid. That's telling.

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November 6, 2023 04:10 AM
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AUD/USD, US dollar, Gold, WTI analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)

It seems a combination of short covering and fresh initiation of longs helped AUD/USD enjoy its best week of the year last week, just a few weeks after large speculators hit a record level of net-short exposure. The same could likely be said for the Dow Jones which also reached a record level of net-short exposure. WTI crude oil failed to capitalise on the risk-on vibe and fell for a second week.

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Markets 4X4: What caught our eye in Asian trade

Huge day for S&P 500, sweet spot for fixed income investors, AUD/USD perking up while Japan win big with timely bond auction.

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November 2, 2023 04:58 AM

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S&P 500, Gold: Tumbling bond yields, Apple earnings create important moment for markets

With US bond yields down hard, Apple earnings out soon and the technical picture changing rapidly, you don't many more import market moments for the S&P 500 and gold than this.

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November 2, 2023 12:08 AM

Markets 4x4: What caught our eye in Asian trade

USD/JPY intervention warnings escalate, PBOC's record push against market forces, USD King for a reason and US real yields push higher before Treasury refunding announcement. Gold is struggling in the difficult environment.

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November 1, 2023 04:16 AM

Markets 4x4: What caught our eye in Asian trade

No weekend hangover for US stock futures, bonds calm before BOJ, AUD/USD breaks downtrend while iron ore breaks higher.

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October 30, 2023 04:51 AM
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GBP/USD, S&P 500, gold, WTI analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)

Large speculators were net-short GBP/USD futures for a fourth week and by their most bearish level in six months, with gross shorts rising to a 52-week high. The S&P 500 broke a key trendline last week as asset managers piled into shorting the E-mini index futures. WTI fell in line with last week's bias but may have found support over the neat-term. And investors piled into gold for a second week - ahead of gold's break above $2000.


Markets 4x4: What caught our eye in Asian trade

Amazon delivers, crude gains on renewed skirmishes, Australian inflation expectations jump while Tokyo price pressures turn up the heat on BOJ.

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October 27, 2023 05:37 AM

Markets 4x4: What caught our eye in Asian trade

Crude oil's grip on markets, AUD/USD hammered as RBA rate hike bets slashed, BOJ faces important choice as USD/JPY tops 150 while Nasdaq 100 rally faces it's moment of truth. Gold continues to glisten despite the tough environment.

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October 26, 2023 05:26 AM