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USD forecast: Positioning hints at headwinds for USD, 2-year yield

Short bets against the US 2-year yield continue to diminish yet remain at a sentiment extreme. And as the yield flatlined above 5% in 2023 despite aggressive short positioning, it suggests its yield may struggle to retake 5% this time around. And that could prove to be a headwind for the USD.

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JPY futures near sentiment extreme, USD set to retrace? COT report

With the USD showing signs of a potential pullbacks and JPY futures nearing a potential sentiment extreme, USD/JPY may well struggle to break and hold above 152. EUR/USD also looks set to bounce despite lower net-long exposure, and gold future may struggle to hold above $2000 given the rise in short and trimming of long bets.

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Can US inflation data make or break the US dollar? The Week Ahead

Whist the daily charts still appear favourable for another leg higher on the US dollar, the weekly charts and market positioning suggest some dark clouds may lurking above. And incoming CPI or inflation expectations data could make or break the dollar, if they lean enough in either direction.

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February 9, 2024 04:26 AM

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY: What 40+ Years of Fed Rate Cuts Tell Us About Trading Forex

Perhaps contrary to popular opinion, the start of a new Fed rate cut cycle has NOT been a consistent bearish catalyst for the US dollar. Read on to for more!

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February 8, 2024 06:25 PM
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Dollars and Sense: The Short-Term Case for US Dollar Strength

How interest rate differentials, scarcity, and falling liquidity could work together to boost the US dollar

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February 6, 2024 02:32 PM
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US dollar bulls resurface, ASX 200 tests well for today: Asian Open

The US dollar shows the potential to continue higher despite a wall of key moving averages. And according to forward returns analysis, the two days prior to Australia Day tend to bode well for the ASX 200.

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January 23, 2024 10:25 PM
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USD: Behind the U.S. Dollar, the Global Reserve Currency

The U.S. Dollar plays an incredibly important role in the global economy and while ‘De-dollarization’ claims may pop up, the currency set a fresh all-time-high for usage last year and remains the world’s primary reserve currency.

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USD bears have a rethink, GBP and AUD positioning diverges: COT report

The US dollar index rallied in line with last week’s bias on assumed short-covering. AUD/USD bears are retuning whilst traders pushed net-long exposure higher, making GBP/AUD longs of interest over the coming weeks.

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USD dollar perks up, EUR/USD, AUD/USD take a turn for the worse

A key voting member of the FOMC pushed back on imminent Fed rate cuts on Tuesday, sending bond yields and the US dollar higher - to the detriment of EUR/USD and AUD/USD.

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January 17, 2024 12:05 AM
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Can the US dollar break out of its range? The Week Ahead

At the time of writing, the US dollar has printed its smallest weekly range since September 2021 at just 69 points. And that is quite remarkable when you consider it has landed on a US inflation report week. Yet daily seasonal data has reveal January 15th to have delivered the strongest average returns and win rate for the month. And that date so happens to be this coming Monday.

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January 12, 2024 05:21 AM
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Dollar analysis: Dollar Index, AUD/USD outlook in focus

Probability of March Fed cut drops on stronger jobs signals ahead of NFP. Dollar Index was testing a key resistance area at the time of writing, so there was the potential for a bearish reversal. Keep a close eye on the Aussie, euro and yuan.

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January 4, 2024 03:50 PM
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US dollar set to bounce? Crude oil bulls eye $80, ASX 200 bears eye 6950

The US dollar held a key support level on Thursday, which could provide the platform for a bounce today if all goes well. Crude oil continues to hint at its own potential bounce, whilst the ASX 200 appears to have formed a swing high on the daily chart.

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November 23, 2023 10:03 PM
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US dollar index approaches its 200-day MA as EUR/USD eyes resistance

With the US dollar continuing to soften during Monday’s Asian trade, we now wait to see if it can help EUR/USD break above a key resistance level. But with the 200-day MA nearby for the US dollar index, it might may hit a bump in the road.

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November 20, 2023 04:26 AM
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Gold glistens as the US dollar plunges (XAU/USD, DXY)

It seems the dollar correction is finally underway, with the US dollar index suffering its worst single day in one year. And it shows the potential for further losses, even if it has found support for now. Gold also shows the potential to have another crack at $2000.

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November 15, 2023 02:02 AM
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USD/JPY rises to resistance, USD ready to retrace? Asian Open

If the BOJ were going to intervene, it could be argued they'd have done it already. But that doesn't mean the market can't do some of the work for them by sending USD/JPY lower from key resistance levels. And if the US dollar pulls back as I suspect, it places USD/JPY short onto the watchlist.

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November 8, 2023 09:44 PM
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USD moves cautiously higher (for now) ahead of Fed speakers

We’ve seen a slight recovery in the US dollar, but this is to be expected following such a sharp selloff heading into the weekend. But with resistance looming, USD could be setting up for a potential swing trade short over the near term.

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November 8, 2023 12:37 AM
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USD, DAX cling to support ahead of PMIs: European open – 24/10/2023

The USD is on the ropes as we enter this session, but it’s likely all down to yields as to where the dollar goes next. And we have enough data in the pipeline to make it go one way or the other. The DAX is also clinging to support, but I see the potential for some mean reversion ahead of its next leg lower.

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October 24, 2023 05:28 AM

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S&P 500 and Dollar Index Analysis - Technical Tuesday

Welcome to another edition of Technical Tuesday. In this week’s report, we will get technical on the S&P 500 and Dollar Index. The benchmark index has bounced back as investors' focus turns to FOMC minutes, CPI and Consumer Sentiment, with US bank earnings also to start on Friday. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index chart shows a potential reversal signal ahead of all these events.

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Q4 US Dollar Outlook: US Economic Exceptionalism to End?

The US dollar has surged on US economic exceptionalism so far this year, but that trend may change in Q4...

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The US Dollar Milkshake Theory: A Sweet Deal for USD Bulls?

The US Dollar Milkshake Theory, in its essence, predicts a significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar against other world currencies - see why and it's potential implications!

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Gold withstands USD strength (but for how long?): Asian Open – 23/08/23

The US dollar tracked the short-end of the yield curve higher on Tuesday, although gold managed to withstand dollar strength with spot prices flirting with a break above 1900. But having looked look at gold futures, I suspect the next level of support for spot gold prices could be around $1870 if momentum reverts lower.

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August 23, 2023 12:19 AM

Dollar analysis: EUR/USD and DXY approaching key levels - Forex Friday

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report, we will focus on the US dollar analysis, and provide updates on the EUR/USD outlook, before looking ahead to the next week, when we have global PMI data and the start of the Jackson Hole summit.

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August 18, 2023 05:16 PM
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AUD/USD holds 64c as US dollar rally pauses: Asian Open – 18th August 2023

The risk-off tone of the week continued through to European and US sessions yesterday, with Wall Street indices falling for a third consecutive day. However, perhaps there is a bit of light at the end of the tunnel in hopes of stimulus. And with the US 2-year yield struggling to break 5% and the US dollar index stalling at the June high, perhaps there's some hope for AUD/USD just yet.

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August 18, 2023 12:22 AM