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Whilst inflation may have peaked, the ‘Nowcast’ seems less certain
We saw some strong moves overnight following signs that inflation may have peaked, but a glance at the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast places a fly in the ointment.
Non-Farm Payrolls more than double estimates! What recession?
The US Non-Farm Payroll data released this morning showed that 528,000 jobs were added to the economy during July. This is more then twice the estimate of 250,000.
Philly Fed shows risk of slowdown; DXY
The Employment component and the Prices Paid component were big contributors to the weaker print. Could we be seeing the first signs of a slowing jobs market and lower inflation?
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PPI follows CPI with stronger than expected 11.3% headline print
As the DXY continues to make new daily highs, it appears that inflation is still at the forefront of traders’ minds, with worries of a global slowdown right behind it!
Multi-decade highs in DXY continues to push Gold lower
The two assets currently share a correlation coefficient of -0.96, a very strong negative correlation. Therefore, if the DXY continues to move higher, one could suspect that XAU/USD will be moving lower!
FOMC Minutes: “More restrictive stance” to come?
The FOMC Minutes from the June 14-15,2022 meeting told a story of a scared Fed that will do anything to stop inflation from increasing, even if it means slowing growth.
Core PCE not as bad as feared. But how much does it matter?
It probably won’t matter in isolation, as the Fed is now looking at a number of inflation data points to help determine the next direction for inflation in the US.
Core PCE: Still the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation?
US Core PCE is due out this week and if it is similar to other recent inflation data, it may be stronger than expected.
Worse than expected US Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production top off a rough data week
Fed Chairman Powell said he does not see a spillover from the high inflation into the broader economy. Therefore, the Fed excepts to continue hiking rates.
Housing data and Philly Fed results don't inspire much hope for US economy
Jerome Powell said at yesterday’s FOMC press conference that he doesn’t see signs of a broader slowdown in the economy. Will his view change?
FOMC recap: Fed hikes rates 75 bps, dot plots show much more to come!
The Fed statement said that it is “strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective” and that it ”expects the labor market to remain strong”.
FOMC Preview: Could the Committee hike 75bps?
With inflation continuing to increase and the Unemployment Rate at its lowest since February 2020, is it time for the Fed to surprise the markets and hike rates by 75bps?
CPI is highest since 1981; DXY, EUR/USD
The reaction in the markets is a stronger US Dollar and a lower EUR/USD, which insinuates a call for more aggressive tightening from the Fed.
Non-Farm Payrolls beat; What will the Fed think?
Today’s headline NFP print and average hourly earnings data should make the Fed happy.
US Dollar rips higher on economic data, Fed speakers
Today’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI and hawkish Fed speakers were bullish for the US Dollar. Will the DXY continue to move higher?
Core PCE still strong, but weaker than March
Although one reading isn’t considered a trend,it may be suggesting that inflation has plateaued.
Is the manufacturing sector telling us something?
Are these large drops in the manufacturing data indicative of a slowdown ahead in the rest of the economy?
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What is the US Dollar Index and how can you trade it?
The US Dollar Index is widely used as a measure of sentiment toward the US dollar. Discover what the Dollar Index is, which currencies are in the basket and how you can use it to inform your forex trades.
US Consumer still spending despite high inflation; EUR/USD
Anyone who is worried about the effects that inflation will have on household spending can take a deep breath for another month as April’s Retail Sales data continued to be strong.
US PPI follows suit after CPI print
Although PPI was lower than March's reading, it did little to soothe investor fears of rising interest rates.
Is it time for USD/CHF to pullback ahead of parity as DXY consolidates?
The US Dollar Index (DXY) and USD/CHF have a very strong positive correlation.
NFP headline beats expectations; confirms Fed’s view that labor markets are tight
If the Fed continues to raise rates, will the jobs numbers begin to move lower?
Big miss as US Q1 GDP turns negative; EUR/USD
The headline print was -1.4% QoQ vs an expectation of +1.1% QoQ and a Q4 2021 reading of +6.9% QoQ!