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ASX 200: Downside risks build on hawkish RBA, unconvincing price action

The prospect of another rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), a crackdown of speculative forces in iron ore futures markets and failure to clear a stubborn resistance level has Australia’s ASX 200 facing the prospect of renewed downside.

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November 23, 2023 05:28 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: Australia’s jobs report takes on greater significance for the RBA rate outlook

Australia’s September jobs report is arguably the most important G10 FX data release in the world on Thursday, ensuring there’ll be significant interest among AUD/USD and ASX 200 traders.

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October 18, 2023 11:23 PM

AUD/USD, AUD/JPY: Softening macro backdrop, BOJ threat amplify downside risks

The combination of a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop, the first monetary policy decision from a new RBA governor and threat of market intervention from the Bank of Japan has created an interesting mix for the AUD/JPY.

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October 3, 2023 04:00 AM

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ASX 200 analysis: Like it or not, it’s holding above 7k post CPI

The ASX 200 has continued to show resilience around the key 7,000 support level, despite the surge on bond yields, negative sentiment and rising inflation. What if sentiment improves?

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September 27, 2023 04:04 AM

AUD/USD: focus on underlying inflation, fade moves on headline volatility

In an environment of heightened risk aversion, sluggish global economic growth and continued grind higher in rates, a volatile monthly inflation indicator from Australia doesn’t scream as overly important.

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September 27, 2023 12:11 AM
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ASX 200: pivotal week looms for Australia’s benchmark stock index

An uneventful year for the ASX 200 could be about to get a lot more exciting with the index perilously close to breaking long-run uptrend support dating back to the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

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September 20, 2023 03:39 AM
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AUD/USD: Australia’s jobs report has few implications for RBA despite jobs surge

Australia’s August labour force survey had something for both AUD/USD bulls and bears, but in the end the detail does not meaningfully change the outlook for interest rates.

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September 14, 2023 03:26 AM
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AUD/USD: Price action suggests bearish sentiment nearing exhaustion point

AUD/USD downside has slowed despite a lot of negativity, bolstering the case for a near-term bounce ahead of key risk events later this week.

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September 11, 2023 03:44 AM
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ASX 200: Bearish technical signals point to growing downside risks

Bearish technical signals are mounting for Australian equities, pointing to the potential for additional downside beyond that already seen.

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September 8, 2023 03:21 AM
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AUD/USD: China sentiment in the driving seat as RBA settles in for extended pause

With the RBA on the sidelines, it means external factors will continue to drive movements in the AUD, ASX 200 and Australian bond futures for the foreseeable future.

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September 5, 2023 06:43 AM
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AUD/USD, ASX 200: growing risk of RBA turning neutral on interest rates

A playbook on how the AUD/USD, ASX 200 and Australian bonds should the RBA signal an end to rate hikes.

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September 4, 2023 02:37 AM
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AUD/USD bounce fizzles as droopy data lessens RBA rate hike risks

AUD/USD slumps on disappointing data, undermining the case for higher interest rates

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August 30, 2023 03:28 AM
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AUD/USD: Powell positioning provides fuel for a bounce

Everyone hates the Australian dollar but loves the USD: a risk heading into Jackson Hole?

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August 25, 2023 03:17 AM
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AUD/USD: reversal risk builds ahead of Jackson Hole

Not a lot has to change to spark a near-term Aussie dollar reversal.

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August 23, 2023 02:16 AM
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Hang Seng downside break eyes retest of 2022 lows

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is arguably the ugliest index chart in the world right now, for good reason.

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August 22, 2023 04:50 AM
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ASX 200: higher bond yields generating valuation headwinds

Australian stocks don't look particularly cheap, adding to downside risks from earnings disappointments.

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August 22, 2023 01:54 AM
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AUD/USD tumbles again as jobs market softens

Unemployment jumps unexpectedly diminishing the risk of a wage price spiral forming.

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August 17, 2023 03:40 AM

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AUD/USD hits fresh lows as bearish sentiment towards China’s economy intensifies

No matter how you slice or dice it, negatives for the AUD/USD continue to pile up.

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August 16, 2023 02:28 AM

USD/JPY: 145 breached yet BOJ intervention seems unlikely

USD/JPY is back to levels where the BOJ intervened last year but that doesn't mean it will do so again.

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August 8, 2023 01:08 AM
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USD/JPY, China A50 Analysis: Asian Open - 4th August 2023

USD/JPY formed a bearish engulfing candle yesterday to suggest all is not well around the cycle highs. Beyond that, it is likely down to NFP as to where USD/JPY finishes the week. We also look at a potential bullish setup on the China A50 which is 'turned the bearish ship around' since we noted its failure to break beneath 12,400 (despite negative sentiment).

AUD/USD pummelled during risk-off trade: Asian Open – 3rd August 2023

AUD/USD fell to an 8-week low, US indices are on track for bearish engulfing weeks and even gold closed the day lower during a risk-off session. The question in my mind as we approach the weekend is whether we’re witnessing a knee-jerk reaction to the US credit-trading downgrade and are at risk of prior trends returning, or whether it is the beginning of something more sinister.

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AUD/USD folds as the RBA holds (but DXY hints at support)

The RBA held their interest rate at 4.1% for a second consecutive month. And the fact AUD fell over -0.6% and the ASX touched a high of the week shows that not everyone was positioned for the outcome.

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August 1, 2023 06:37 AM

AUD/USD falls as soft CPI prompts renewed hopes of an RBA pause

Whilst Aussie employment data raised expectations of another RBA hike, today’s soft CPI figures may get the RBA off the hook from those opposing higher rates. AUD/USD fell accordingly.