WTI

After Tuesday’s sharp recovery off the lows, crude oil prices have pushed higher, erasing much of the post OPEC dump. As prices reverse, this continues to bolster the short-term crude oil outlook.

Crude oil prices turned positive, erasing earlier losses of around 2.5%, to make the short-term crude oil outlook more neutral-to-slightly positive.

Oil prices gapped higher at the Asian open following the weekend's news that Saudi Arabia are to cut oil production by 10% from July, whilst improved appetite for risk helped the ASX 200 and AUD/JPY rally on Friday.

It appears that US congress actually want to enjoy this weekend, having managed to get the debt-ceiling bill passed through the House and Senate and onto Joe Biden’s desk for his signoff - with a full business day remaining.

Chinese concerns are offsetting OPEC cuts and strength in US demand. Given these mixed influences, the short-term crude oil outlook remains as clear as mud.

FX markets were quiet ahead of the Fed minutes and UK CPI data, excluding the Kiwi dollar which plunged as the RBNZ delivered a dovish hike.

My crude oil outlook remains bullish and reckon WTI could climb to $80. The "weaker demand" narrative is likely priced in and OPEC cuts point to tight market.

After a big drop earlier in the week, WTI has staged an impressive bounce, boosting the WTI outlook, especially in light of the OPEC’s ongoing supply cuts

Whilst US CPI is likely the main event of the week, UK wages data could also turn the dial for the BOE, which is why GBP/USD implied volatility has spiked.

Despite hopes of a rebound in demand due to China’s reopening, oil bulls have repeatedly failed to help WTI crude oil close above $82 – and momentum now points lower.

After rising 8% last week oil hovers around its year to date high, boosted by China re-opening and expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve.

WTI suffered its worst day in 30 yesterday, with a combination of a stronger US dollar, recession concerns and weaker natural gas prices all playing their part for a bearish session.

We see a technical case for EUR/GBP to top out over the near-term, which could be helped if Germany deliver a soft inflation report today.

Jerome Powell hit the wires and effectively confirmed that the Fed will slow their pace of tightening, reigniting the argument over what a ‘pivot’ is.

This time on report that the OPEC+ to discuss production hike by 500K bpd

COVID cases continued to rise over the weekend, and that has weighed on sentiment overnight with oil prices and index futures trading lower.

The dollar caught a bid following hawkish comments from two Fed members late in the US session, which leaves the potential for a follow-through today.