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Forex Friday: USD/JPY, Yields and peak inflation?

In this week’s edition, we discuss the re-pricing of future rate hikes and potential for peak inflation, and how all this is helping to fuel a rally in zero- and low-yielding assets.

Research

Gold attempts breakout as yields dip

Investors appear convinced the Fed will slow down rate hikes despite officials indicating otherwise.

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Fed speakers out in force with more hawkish tone; USD/JPY

The correlation between USD/JPY and 10-year yields has come back in line and is almost in “strong” territory on the daily timeframe.

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August 3, 2022 03:48 PM

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Gold, dollar steady ahead of ISM services PMI as yields push higher

Let’s see if today’s US data or Fed speeches will cause more volatility in bond – and, in turn, gold – prices.

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August 3, 2022 12:54 PM
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All eyes on bond yields ahead of FOMC

In the eyes of bond markets, the front-loading of interest rate hikes will potentially lead to a recession.

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Stocks slump, yields surge as recession worries add to inflation woes

Risk was completely off the menu at the start of a busy week for central bank action

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US Yields on the move again. What does it mean for USD/JPY?

US 10-year yields and USD/JPY have a strong, positive correlation with a correlation coefficient of +0.92.

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Gold: Now or Never

With everything going on in equities space, gold may finally rise from the ashes and shine

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Nasdaq limping as yields press higher

Sentiment remains fragile following the big sell-off on Thursday

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May 6, 2022 01:04 PM
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After a strong March, US 10-year yields and USD/JPY may be ready for a pullback

As a result of the high correlation with USD/JPY, yields have been pulling USD/JPY higher with them.

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March 31, 2022 07:21 PM
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European Open: A (technical) case for a pullback in yields

As bond yields move inversely to bond prices, it should be taken note of that the US 10-year note has just tested a key level of support.

Research

Will the bond market meltdown be the undoing of the S&P500?

U.S. yields have surged higher again this week to their highest level since May 2019, after Fed Chair Powell opened the door to a 50bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, causing fresh pain for global bond markets.

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Powell’s comments send yields and USD/JPY to multi-year highs

In Powell’s first comments since the press conference after the FOMC meeting last week, he comes across as extremely hawkish.

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March 21, 2022 06:18 PM
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CPI Preview: Is inflation close to peaking?

After a surge to 7% YoY for December, CPI is expected to have increase to 7.3% YoY in January.

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February 8, 2022 07:48 PM

Bonds - the new hot potato? EUR/JPY probes key support

Bond traders continued to offload their holdings and send shimmers across global markets. EUR/USD also broke key support, so now will EUR/JPY follow suit?

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European Open: Bond yields march higher, 1.1386 pivotal for EUR/USD

Bond traders seem to be fully on board with the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric, with the US yield curve continuing its ascent overnight as they offloaded their holdings.

US 10Y bond yields creaking again

Benchmark US government bond prices have been inching higher and yields lower again, suggesting the recent improvement in US data has not made a big impact on interest rate expectations.

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April 24, 2019 08:08 AM

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Gold stabilises

Following a sharp sell-off last Thursday, gold prices have since stabilised.

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April 3, 2019 06:24 AM

YIELDS: RACE TO THE BOTTOM

The race to the bottom continues for government bond yields after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand became the latest major central bank to shift from neutral to dovish overnight.

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March 27, 2019 06:40 AM

Is Sentiment About To Crack?

With US treasury yields starting to turn lower, just as the S&P500 hesitate at critical highs, we take a look at the bigger picture to see if sentiment could be about to turn for the worst.

US bond yields creaking amid recent soft data

With the Fed dropping its hawkish bias, and with recent US data deteriorating slightly, bond prices should remain supported and yields undermined going forward

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February 19, 2019 11:02 AM

Gold remains supported as yields and stocks struggle

Thanks to a pullback in bond yields and an equity market sell-off, yesterday saw gold climbed to its best level since July to reach a critical resistance level around $1238-40.

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October 24, 2018 12:08 PM

Gold on the brink as dollar and yields heat up

When stocks fall, the conventional wisdom is that safe haven gold would rise, and vice versa. But when stocks fall because of rising bond yields, it is a different story.

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October 9, 2018 07:34 AM