COT

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JPY futures near sentiment extreme, USD set to retrace? COT report

With the USD showing signs of a potential pullbacks and JPY futures nearing a potential sentiment extreme, USD/JPY may well struggle to break and hold above 152. EUR/USD also looks set to bounce despite lower net-long exposure, and gold future may struggle to hold above $2000 given the rise in short and trimming of long bets.

EUR/USD, US dollar, Dow Jones, crude oil analysis: COT report

Traders increased their bearish exposure to EUR/USD futures at their fastest pace in 20 months last week, and large speculators increased their net-long exposure to US dollar index futures despite being on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure the week prior.

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USD/JPY, gold, crude oil forecast: COT report – Feb 5, 2024

Bears continued to initiate fresh short bets against the Japanese yen, which points to further potential strength ahead of USD/JPY. Gold bulls trimmed longs for gold futures, and shorts continued to fall for crude oil.

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EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, crude oil analysis: COT report – Jan 29, 2024

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

Yen, Euros and dollar currency bills and notes

USD bears have a rethink, GBP and AUD positioning diverges: COT report

The US dollar index rallied in line with last week’s bias on assumed short-covering. AUD/USD bears are retuning whilst traders pushed net-long exposure higher, making GBP/AUD longs of interest over the coming weeks.

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US dollar bears remain undeterred: COT report

Traders were their most bearish on the US dollar against all currencies in four months, despite the Fed's attempt to push back on multipole rate cuts this year.

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January 14, 2024 08:45 PM
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USD/JPY, GBP/USD, crude oil analysis: COT report – Dec 18, 2023

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, gold, crude oil analysis: COT report

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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Yen bulls return, EUR/USD benefits from soft dollar bets: COT report

When yen bulls increase their long exposure by 40% in a week, it is probably worth noting. Especially when large speculators had pushed net-short exposure to a 6-year high the week prior. Every turning point must start somewhere, and I continue to suspect this turning point already has.

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EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Nasdaq, crude oil analysis: COT report – Nov 20, 2023

EUR/USD bears continued to trim shorts while large speculators added to longs. Whilst this might not be a bullish bet on the strength of Europe, it may well be a bet against the US dollar. And with the 2-year note holding above key support and shorts being trimmed, it hints at lower yields and a weaker US dollar.

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EUR, AUD, CAD, WTI analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)

Large speculators increased their gross-long exposure to AUD/USD futures by 17.1% and trimmed shorts by -2.9% on the day of the RBA’s last hike. And this could be a significant development when you consider net-short exposure recently hit a record level of bearishness just six weeks ago, yet prices defied bears with a sustainable break beneath 63c.

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November 13, 2023 08:56 PM
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AUD/USD, US dollar, Gold, WTI analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)

It seems a combination of short covering and fresh initiation of longs helped AUD/USD enjoy its best week of the year last week, just a few weeks after large speculators hit a record level of net-short exposure. The same could likely be said for the Dow Jones which also reached a record level of net-short exposure. WTI crude oil failed to capitalise on the risk-on vibe and fell for a second week.

Yen, Euros and dollar currency bills and notes

GBP/USD, S&P 500, gold, WTI analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)

Large speculators were net-short GBP/USD futures for a fourth week and by their most bearish level in six months, with gross shorts rising to a 52-week high. The S&P 500 broke a key trendline last week as asset managers piled into shorting the E-mini index futures. WTI fell in line with last week's bias but may have found support over the neat-term. And investors piled into gold for a second week - ahead of gold's break above $2000.

Yen, Euros and dollar currency bills and notes

EUR/USD, gold, WTI crude oil analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)

Whilst traders remain net-long EUR/USD futures, there are early signs of a turnaround in sentiment with asset managers increasing bullish exposure and prices holding above 1.05. Despite higher WTI prices, large futures traders continued to reduce their long exposure while managed funds have increased their shorts.. Perhaps not too surprisingly, asset managers flipped back to net-long exposure to gold and silver futures last Tuesday.

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USD/JPY, VIX, S&P 500, WTI, gold: Commitment of traders report (COT)

Open interest has fallen notably on USD/JPY since its failed ‘bid’ for spot prices to break and hold above 150. And that further suggests a glass ceiling for prices. Japanese yen futures also saw grow longs increase by 19.6%, although traders remained heavily net-short.

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EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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AUD/USD, S&P 500, VIX analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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US dollar, USD/CAD, WTI crude oil analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)

The USD is on the cusp of flipping to net-long exposure among G10 currencies according to data compiled by IMM (International Monetary Market). And despite the resurgence of US dollar strength, oil continues to perform well and market positioning is looking increasingly bullish for the weeks or even months ahead.

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September 17, 2023 10:23 PM
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EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT)

Whilst AUD/USD has held above key support levels despite a slew of weak data from China, large speculators and asset managers have increased their bearish bets against it. Bears are also making more of a presence against EUR/USD, and large speculators increased their gross-long exposure to JPY futures by ~50% last week.

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USD, GBP/USD analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT) – 04/09/2023

It is also worth noting that the 2-year yield printed a bearish engulfing week after a failed attempt to break and hold above 5%. And if yields continue to move lower over the coming weeks, it will likely weigh on the US dollar. Large speculators are slowly loosening their bullish grip on GBP/USD futures, with short exposure rising by 25% last week. Traders are also showing renewed bullish interest in gold and silver.

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Gold, AUD/USD, Dow Jones: Commitment of traders report (COT) - 28/08/2023

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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Nasdaq 100 analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT) – 21st August 2023

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.

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August 20, 2023 09:07 PM
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EUR/USD, Gold Analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT) – 14th August 2023

The commitment of traders (COT) report shows how large speculators are positioned across futures markets on the CME exchange.