USD/CHF Falls Towards 50-Day SMA as Five-Day Rally Unravels

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US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF

USD/CHF falls toward the 50-Day SMA (0.9029) as the five-day rally in the exchange rate unravels.

USD/CHF Falls Towards 50-Day SMA as Five-Day Rally Unravels

USD/CHF is on track to mark the largest single-week decline since August as it sells off ahead of the monthly high (0.9197), and the exchange rate may no longer track the positive slope in the moving average if it closes below the indicator for the first time since October.

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In turn, USD/CHF may give back the advance from the January low (0.8966) as there appears to be a change in trend, but the exchange rate may consolidate over the remainder of the week should it defend the monthly low (0.9002).

With that said, USD/CHF may trade within the opening range for February should it struggle to close below the 50-Day SMA (0.9029), but the exchange rate may continue to gut check the moving average amid the failed attempt to test the January high (0.9201).

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USDCHF Daily Chart 02132025

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView

  • USD/CHF snaps the recent series of higher highs and lows as it tumbles to a fresh weekly low (0.9035), and a break/close below the 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.9040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region may lead to a test of the monthly low (0.9002).
  • Failure to defend the January low (0.8966) may push USD/CHF towards the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.8910 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone, but the exchange rate may track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.9029) if it continues to close above the moving average.
  • Need a breach above the monthly high (0.9197) to bring the January high (0.9201) on the radar, with a close above 0.9180 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) opening up the October 2023 high (0.9245).

Additional Market Outlooks

USD/JPY Pulls Back Ahead of Monthly High to Halt Three-Day Rally

AUD/USD Eyes January High Ahead of RBA Rate Decision

Gold Price Forecast: RSI Still Sits in Overbought Territory

GBP/USD Halts Selloff to Carve Bullish Engulfing Candlestick

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

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