US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF
USD/CHF extends the rebound from the monthly low (0.8913) to snap the recent series of lower highs and lows, with the recovery in the exchange rate keeping the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above oversold territory.
USD/CHF Vulnerable to Flattening Slope in 50-Day SMA
Keep in mind, USD/CHF failed to defend the January low (0.8966) as it marked a four-day selloff for the first time since September, but the exchange rate may further retrace the decline from the monthly high (0.9197) as it appears to be reversing ahead of the December low (0.8736).
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In turn, the RSI may show the bearish momentum abating as it recovers from its lowest level since September, but the rebound in USD/CHF may turn out to be temporary if it struggles to trade back above the 50-Day SMA (0.9055).
With that said, USD/CHF may consolidate over the coming days amid the flattening slope in the moving average, with the opening range for March is in focus as the exchange rate retraces the decline from the start of the week.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView
- USD/CHF snaps the recent series of lower highs and lows following the failed attempt to push below the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.8910 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone, with a move above the 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.9040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region raising the scope for a move towards the monthly high (0.9197).
- Need a close above 0.9180 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) to bring the October 2023 high (0.9245) on the radar, but lack of momentum to push back above the 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.9040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region may keep USD/CHF below the 50-Day SMA (0.9055).
- Need a break/close below the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.8910 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone to open up the 0.8770 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8800 (50% Fibonacci extension) region, with the next area of interest coming in around the December low (0.8736).
Additional Market Outlooks
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Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Continues to Coil Within January Range
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
