AUDUSD tests key support after AU jobs data disappoints
At its board meeting last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia noted that a tighter labour market is required to lift wages growth, which takes time to achieve its inflation objective.
Share this:
"The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. This will require the labour market to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently. This is likely to take some time."
Earlier this week, Westpac Consumer Confidence data showed employment expectations amongst respondents improved to their best level since the mid-1990s, reflecting a high level of job vacancies.
However, October's Australian Labour Force data today has proved a sombre reminder of the RBA's cautionary note above, as employment fell by -46.1k vs. expectations for a +50k rise. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% vs. expectations of 4.8%, and the participation rose less than expected to 64.7%.
The data for the report was collected from September 26 to October 9 pre the re-opening in Victoria and capturing very little of the re-opening in NSW. That said, this was known before the release and factored into economists’ forecasts.
Nonetheless, given the worse is now behind and based on the solid pick up in leading labour market indicators, the reaction from the currency has been modest. The AUDUSD fell from .7338 pre the data to a low of .7316, while AUDNZD fell from 1.0380 to a low near 1.0356.
Technically and fundamentally, we remain bearish in the AUDUSD; however, after reaching the initial short-term target of .7320 written about in this article here, we look for better levels to short the AUDUSD before the next leg towards .7100c commences.
Source Tradingview. The figures stated areas of November 11, 2021. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation
How to trade with City Index
You can trade easily trade with City Index by using these four easy steps:
- Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer
• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
- Search for the company you want to trade in our award-winning platform
- Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
- Place the trade
"The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. This will require the labour market to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently. This is likely to take some time."
Earlier this week, Westpac Consumer Confidence data showed employment expectations amongst respondents improved to their best level since the mid-1990s, reflecting a high level of job vacancies.
However, October's Australian Labour Force data today has proved a sombre reminder of the RBA's cautionary note above, as employment fell by -46.1k vs. expectations for a +50k rise. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2% vs. expectations of 4.8%, and the participation rose less than expected to 64.7%.
The data for the report was collected from September 26 to October 9 pre the re-opening in Victoria and capturing very little of the re-opening in NSW. That said, this was known before the release and factored into economists’ forecasts.
Nonetheless, given the worse is now behind and based on the solid pick up in leading labour market indicators, the reaction from the currency has been modest. The AUDUSD fell from .7338 pre the data to a low of .7316, while AUDNZD fell from 1.0380 to a low near 1.0356.
Technically and fundamentally, we remain bearish in the AUDUSD; however, after reaching the initial short-term target of .7320 written about in this article here, we look for better levels to short the AUDUSD before the next leg towards .7100c commences.
Source Tradingview. The figures stated areas of November 11, 2021. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation
How to trade with FOREX.com
You can trade with FOREX.com by following these four easy steps:
- Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer
- Search for the instrument you want to trade in our award-winning platform
- Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
- Place the trade
Related tags:
Latest market news
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
EUR/USD Q4 2026 Outlook: Euro at a Crossroads as Fed, ECB Tighten 9 25 2026
EUR/USD enters Q4 at a pivotal inflection point as competing Fed-ECB policy paths and persistent inflation risks collide with major technical support.
USD/JPY Q4 2026 Outlook: Hawkish Fed Pricing Clashes With Intervention Risk
The year-end tug-of-war is clear: hawkish Fed pricing supports USD/JPY, while intervention risk limits the upside.
Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY 4% Rally Challenges Post-Intervention Downtrend 9 24 2026
USD/JPY momentum has shifted sharply higher, putting a major resistance confluence in focus as U.S. and Japanese event risk builds.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.