Bitcoin, Nasdaq Price Outlook: Hormuz Risks Remain the Key Resistance for Risk Assets

Hormuz-related risks continue to cap upside momentum across risk assets, as stalled negotiations maintain elevated uncertainty. This environment is keeping Bitcoin below the 75,000 level and the Nasdaq below the 25,200 resistance zone.

From a market positioning perspective, global appetite to capitalize on recent dips remains strong. However, headline-driven sentiment continues to dominate, introducing significant noise and limiting sustained breakouts. Risk assets remain capped below key resistance levels that define longer-term directional bias, as Hormuz-related disruptions ripple through global supply chains and support elevated crude oil prices (see Q2 2026 crude oil outlook for further details).

The longer this situation persists, the more inflationary pressures are expected to build—supporting the US dollar and interest rates, while weighing on broader market gains, until a clearer diplomatic alignment emerges between the US and Iran.

CNN Fear and Greed Index

Source: CNN

Market sentiment has improved notably following initial signs of negotiations, rebounding from lows last seen in April 2025 during tariff-related volatility. However, current conditions remain significantly more volatile, reducing the likelihood of a similar recovery pattern.

This cautious positioning is reflected in the Fear and Greed Index, which remains just below neutral levels, highlighting hesitation near key resistance zones.

Key charts to watch

• DXY: Resistance at 100.60 | Support at 98
• Crude Oil: Resistance at 115 | Support at 88
• Nasdaq: Resistance at 25,200–25,500 | Support at 24,200 and 23,800 (Click here for the US Indices Outlook)
• Bitcoin: Resistance at 75,000 | Support at 60,000

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

The Bitcoin chart highlights several factors supporting a longer-term recovery, alongside a key risk that could drive another leg lower before a broader shift.

Scenario for further upside

• Holding above the 60,000 psychological level and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2022–2025 uptrend
• Trading near the 2021 highs, now acting as support
• Approaching the projected target of the November 2025–January 2026 wedge pattern
• Weekly RSI rebounding from oversold levels last seen in 2022

The outlook remains neutral, with a confirmed close above 75,000 needed to support a move toward 80,000–89,000, followed by 100,000–115,000. A sustained extension could open the path toward the 130,000–200,000 range.

Scenario for further downside

As geopolitical uncertainty persists, a renewed risk-off move with a close below 60,000 could expose the 56,000 and 48,000 zones, which may act as longer-term accumulation areas.

The consolidation since February 2026 may also be forming a short-term head and shoulders continuation pattern, awaiting neckline confirmation for a potential extension lower

Nasdaq Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

In line with broader US equity markets, price action across the Nasdaq reflects the move between April 2025 lows, January 2026 highs, and March 2026 lows, currently holding near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

This positioning suggests short-term pullback risks, reinforced by extended Hormuz tensions and rising inflation pressures, within a broader longer-term uptrend.

Upside scenario

A resolution between the US and Iran could support a move above the 25,200–25,500 zone, opening the path toward 25,800 and 26,500. This may then lead to either a pullback or further extension toward the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels at 27,700 and 28,800.

Downside scenario

Currently, downside risks remain dominant. A move below 24,600, followed by 24,200 and 23,800, could trigger a deeper decline toward the 2024 highs near 22,100, where longer-term buying interest may emerge.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves