Dollar Forecast: Technical Tuesday - April 29, 2025
Traders were too busy reversing the “Sell America” narrative to pay attention to weak US data today. Buoyed by renewed optimism around potential trade deals between the US and major partners, the dollar has made a small recovery in recent days. While it is too soon to declare and end to the existing bearish dollar forecast, could this be the early stages of a broader dollar rebound?
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Disappointing US economic data might have rattled the markets on another day—but not this time. Both the March JOLTS job openings and April CB Consumer Confidence reports missed expectations, yet the US dollar barely flinched. Why? Traders were too busy reversing the “Sell America” narrative, buoyed by renewed optimism around potential trade deals between the US and major partners. While it is too soon to declare and end to the existing bearish dollar forecast, could this be the early stages of a broader dollar rebound?
The shift in risk sentiment has helped the greenback steady itself after weeks of being battered by recession fears, all thanks to Trump’s tariffs. Ahead of a busy week, we had some rather weak data that would have otherwise caused it to fall further. But it wasn’t the case today.
Key data at a glance:
- JOLTS March job openings: 7.192M vs. 7.5M expected; prior: 7.48M
- CB Consumer Confidence (April): 86.0 vs. 87.5 expected
- Present situation: 133.5 slightly down from 134.4
- Expectations index: 54.4 – the lowest since 2011 vs. 66.9 prior
- Median inflation expectations: 6.0% up sharply from 4.9%
While the data paints a picture of softening confidence and cooling job demand, the market mood suggests investors are betting on a brighter geopolitical and trade horizon. That could put the dollar in a stronger position, but we will need to see some actual deals being signed now than just talk.
Technical US dollar forecast: Dollar Index (DXY) key levels to watch
Source: TradingView.com
The Dollar Index has bounced off the 99.00 level today, after making a low at just beath the 98.00 handle last week. Was that just an interim low, or a more significant one remains to be seen. For now, the trend is technically bearish for the DXY, but if we start to see a few levels break then that would brighten the dollar forecast.
The most important resistance area now resides around the key 100.00 level, or more specifically between 99.57 to 100.15. This band of prior support broke down last week, and the retest from below has so far held. Thus, if in the coming days we see a potential break above this zone, then that could pave the way for a bigger dollar recovery. The next area of resistance above that area is between 101.26 to 101.84.
In terms of support levels, 99.00 is the first battleground, which held earlier today. Below that, last week’s low near 98.00 will come into focus.
-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
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