USD/TRY at all-time highs
If Turkey continues to threaten retaliation against the Kurdish YPG militants or if there is a continued threat that the CBRT will cut rates once again, USD/TRY may continue to put in all-time new highs
Share this:
USD/TRY continues to make all-time new highs, this time as President Erdogan insinuates that Turkey may take an offensive stance on Kurdish YPG militants. Erdogan said that Turkey “was determined to eliminate threats originating in northern Syria” after a Kurdish YPG militant attack killed two Turkish police.
What are Emerging Market economies?
The previous high was made on September 24th, as the CBRT unexpectedly cut rates to 18% from 19%. The Central Bank said that rising inflation was transitory, due to supply constraints and an increase in demand. Indeed, just over a week later, September inflation was 19.58% YoY vs 19.7% expected and 19.25% in August. The Central Bank of Turkey meets again on October 21st and despite the rise in inflation, expectations are swirling that the CBRT may cut again.
Trade USD/TRY now: Login or open a new account!
USD/TRY traded to its highest level ever today on fears that the country was on the brink of war. The pair traded above the psychological round number resistance of 9.000 to a high of 9.01751. Notice that there is a high positive correlation between US 10-year yields and the price of USD/TRY, as there is with many emerging market currencies vs the US dollar. The current correlation coefficient between US 10-year yields and USD/TRY is +0.92. A reading above +0.80 or below -0.80 is considered a strong correlation. Therefore, if US 10-years continue to rise, there is a good chance that USD/TRY will follow. Also notice that the RSI is in overbought territory, an indication the pair may be ready for a pullback.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
On a 240-minute chart, price has run into resistance at the top trendline of an ascending wedge. Resistance is at the daily highs of at 9.01751, which confluences with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from the June 1st highs to the Septembe4 22nd lows. Above there is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the same timeframe. If price hold the 9.0000 level, horizontal support is at 8.97486, then long-term horizontal support and the bottom upward sloping trendline of the ascending wedge near 8.85029. Below there, is the September 20th highs at 8.7275.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
If Turkey continues to threaten retaliation against the Kurdish YPG militants or if there is a continued threat that the CBRT will cut rates once again, USD/TRY may continue to put in all-time new highs!
Learn more about forex trading opportunities.
USD/TRY continues to make all-time new highs, this time as President Erdogan insinuates that Turkey may take an offensive stance on Kurdish YPG militants. Erdogan said that Turkey “was determined to eliminate threats originating in northern Syria” after a Kurdish YPG militant attack killed two Turkish police.
What are Emerging Market economies?
The previous high was made on September 24th, as the CBRT unexpectedly cut rates to 18% from 19%. The Central Bank said that rising inflation was transitory, due to supply constraints and an increase in demand. Indeed, just over a week later, September inflation was 19.58% YoY vs 19.7% expected and 19.25% in August. The Central Bank of Turkey meets again on October 21st and despite the rise in inflation, expectations are swirling that the CBRT may cut again.
Trade USD/TRY now: Login or Open a new account!
• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
USD/TRY traded to its highest level ever today on fears that the country was on the brink of war. The pair traded above the psychological round number resistance of 9.000 to a high of 9.01751. Notice that there is a high positive correlation between US 10-year yields and the price of USD/TRY, as there is with many emerging market currencies vs the US dollar. The current correlation coefficient between US 10-year yields and USD/TRY is +0.92. A reading above +0.80 or below -0.80 is considered a strong correlation. Therefore, if US 10-years continue to rise, there is a good chance that USD/TRY will follow. Also notice that the RSI is in overbought territory, an indication the pair may be ready for a pullback.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
On a 240-minute chart, price has run into resistance at the top trendline of an ascending wedge. Resistance is at the daily highs of at 9.01751, which confluences with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension from the June 1st highs to the Septembe4 22nd lows. Above there is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the same timeframe. If price hold the 9.0000 level, horizontal support is at 8.97486, then long-term horizontal support and the bottom upward sloping trendline of the ascending wedge near 8.85029. Below there, is the September 20th highs at 8.7275.
Source: Tradingview, Stone X
If Turkey continues to threaten retaliation against the Kurdish YPG militants or if there is a continued threat that the CBRT will cut rates once again, USD/TRY may continue to put in all-time new highs!
Learn more about forex trading opportunities.
Related tags:
Latest market news
The complete CFD trading experience
Award-winning platforms, competitive spreads, low commissions and dedicated support.
We live and breathe the markets and are dedicated to helping traders realise their ambitions as we continue to set the industry bar.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
EUR/USD weekly outlook: Oil, inflation and NFP in focus
After coming under significant pressure in recent weeks, the EUR/USD came off its lows to finish the week on a positive note on Friday, albeit with only a mild rebound. That was not enough to prevent the exchange rate falling for the third consecutive week, as the US dollar and bond yields rallied across the board.
Gold Q4 2026 outlook: Resilience in the face of rallying dollar and yields
As we headed towards the latter stages of Q3 and into Q4, the Fed had just hiked rates in a hawkish FOMC meeting, while the likes of the ECB and BoJ had also tightened their respective policies. Oil prices remained elevated amid the prolonged US-Iran conflict. Meanwhile, bond yields were breaking out, and the dollar was higher across the board. Yet, remarkably, gold was still holding in the positive territory for the third quarter, even if it had weakened somewhat in September.
Oil Quietly Hands the Fed a Reason to Stay Hawkish
Oil prices and the U.S. dollar are both on the front foot as elevated energy costs feed Fed warnings that inflation may prove sticky.
StoneX Europe Ltd may make third party material available on this website which may contain information included but not limited to the conditions of financial markets. The material is for information purposes only and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice and/or investment recommendation and/or an investment research and/or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments; any decision to enter into a specific transaction shall be made by the client following an assessment by him/her of their situation.
StoneX Europe Ltd makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. We are not under any obligation to update any such material. Any opinion made may be personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of StoneX Europe Ltd.