After a three-day recovery, gold prices have fallen in excess of 1.2% so far today, as the metal continues to hover around the $4,000 level. Today’s bearish price action threatens this key level, especially when you consider last week’s 4% sell-off. For now, gold is hanging around this psychological threshold, but it remains to be seen whether it will hold for too long. We need to see clear evidence that sellers are genuinely losing control before the short-term gold forecast can turn decisively more bullish from a technical point of view.
What is holing gold back and can the metal recover?
In short, inflation. Can it recover? Sure.
While persistent inflation should, in theory, support demand for gold as a store of value and hedge against the erosion of purchasing power, it is also keeping central banks on a hawkish path. Rate hike expectations are keeping both nominal and real yields elevated, which typically work against the zero-yielding metal.
Meanwhile, central-bank buying remains an important source of demand that is less sensitive to short-term movements in bond yields. Purchases from countries including China have helped provide a structural underpinning for the gold market, reinforcing the longer-term argument for holding the metal.
That does not mean central-bank demand will prevent further declines. But it does make the case for a prolonged bear market less convincing.
If investors believe official-sector buying will remain strong, sizeable dips may become increasingly attractive to longer-term buyers through the physical, ETF and futures markets. In other words, central-bank accumulation could help put a floor under gold even while the near-term macro backdrop remains challenging.
Gold has already fallen nearly 30% from its January peak, while silver has suffered an even sharper correction of around 55%. Silver has now broken below its summer lows and moved deep into a long-term support zone near $50.
Gold, by contrast, has so far held above its summer low around $3,942.
After such sizeable declines, both metals are arguably becoming increasingly vulnerable to a counter-trend bounce. But for gold, I would still want to see a bullish trigger before turning more constructive.
Gold forecast: Technical bullish signal remains elusive
The metal has found some support around $4,000 over the past couple of sessions, but the technical picture remains bearish until we see a meaningful higher high.
Gold has managed only two weekly gains over the past nine weeks, highlighting just how persistent the selling pressure has been. That momentum makes it difficult to argue that a durable bottom is already in place.
That said, markets rarely move in straight lines, and I would not be surprised to see XAUUSD carve out a bottom around current levels.
The first important test on any rebound comes around $4,075-$4,106. This was an important support area and the base of the rally that began in early August. Having broken below it, the zone has already turned into resistance as we have seen yesterday.
A sustained move back above $4,075-$4,106 would therefore be significant. It would suggest that sellers are struggling to defend the breakdown and that the recent sell-off may have run its course.
A decisive break above the descending trend line connecting the recent highs would provide another, stronger signal that momentum is turning.
Until then, I would treat rallies with some caution. Gold may be close to finding a floor, but it still needs to prove it. For now, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
