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Recent trading sessions continue to present a challenging environment for the euro in the short term. This can be seen in the performance of EUR/USD, which has declined by approximately 0.5%, reflecting another loss of ground for the European currency and highlighting the continued strength of the U.S. dollar.
The EUR/USD pair has accumulated a streak of four consecutive bullish sessions, holding a gain above 1%, which shows that, for now, buying pressure has returned to the pair ahead of the year-end. This renewed upside momentum observed in recent sessions has been supported by the weakness of the U.S. dollar following last week’s central bank comments and by expectations of a neutral stance from the European Central Bank in this week’s decision.
The DAX rally faces resistance near 24,510- 24,650 as RSI signals overbought and momentum shows early signs of exhaustion. US indices hit record highs led by tech and healthcare, while weak jobs data and the shutdown delay payrolls, reinforcing Fed cut bets. Gold hovers near $3,900/oz with Goldman bullish, oil steadies ahead of OPEC+.
The DAX staged a breakout above 23,820 with bullish momentum, though overbought signals call for caution. In the US, weak jobs data reinforced Fed rate cut bets, while the shutdown delays key economic reports. Pharma stocks surged on tariff relief, Etsy jumped on an OpenAI partnership, and Amazon eyes grocery expansion. Gold nears $3,900/oz with Goldman seeing new highs, while geopolitics—from Ukraine to Asia—keeps risks elevated.
Wall Street broke its record streak as Powell balanced inflation vs jobs, leaving markets cautious. Tech led the pullback, while Boeing gained on a massive China order. Gold hit fresh records, with China set to expand its bullion market role. Meanwhile, the DAX sits at 23,300 support inside a descending triangle—hold and rebound toward 24,000, or break lower toward 23,000? Traders brace for a decisive move.
Markets opened volatile this week: Japan’s Nikkei crossed 44,000 for the first time, while gold and silver hit fresh records. Weak US labor data raised bets on a September Fed rate cut. The DAX remains trapped in a bearish channel, with risk if support at 23,600 breaks. Traders now look ahead to the ECB meeting and earnings from Oracle and GameStop.
Markets opened September mixed. US inflation risks remain sticky, while weak consumer sentiment and PMI data weigh on the Fed outlook. Japan’s tech-heavy Nikkei dropped sharply on chip sector losses, while Alibaba surged in Hong Kong on new AI chip development. In Europe, inflation was mixed, with Germany seeing a slight rise. The DAX remains stuck below resistance, signaling fading bullish momentum unless bulls reclaim 24,300.
EUR/USD bears were in control until Trump threatened to fire Powell. The big question now is whether EUR/USD bears can defend lower-high resistance ahead of the Fed meeting later this month.
Relative economic growth expectations may soon swing back in the euro's favour.
On the equity markets, the announcement of the European Commission's support plan should continue to provide support, even if it remains to be confirmed, since it implies an agreement of the 27 member countries.
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