DAX shy at all time high & NFP Delay Today

DAX Technical Outlook

The Germany 40 (4H) is showing signs of exhaustion after a sharp breakout rally. Price surged from the 23,800 zone through the 200 EMA and resistance at 24,100, topping out just under 24,650 (all-time high). It is now consolidating beneath 24,510 resistance, with candles hugging the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI remains elevated at ~76, in overbought territory, while the MACD continues to signal strong momentum but with a flattening histogram, hinting at a possible slowdown.

Immediate resistance remains at 24,510 and then 24,650 (all-time high). A breakout above this zone could extend the rally into fresh territory. On the downside, first support is at 24,100, followed by the breakout area near 23,800–23,700. As long as price holds above that base, the uptrend remains intact. Overall, momentum is bullish, but near-term traders should be cautious about chasing entries at these stretched levels, given the existing downside risk.

US Equities & Market Sentiment

• Record closes: The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all finished at fresh highs, led by tech strength. The SOX index gained +1.9% to a record, with Apple, Nvidia and Broadcom lifting the Nasdaq.
• Sector leadership: Healthcare joined tech as a driver, with Biogen and Thermo Fisher rallying after Pfizer–Trump Medicaid pricing/tariff relief deal boosted pharma.
• Stock movers:
  • FICO +18% on a new licensing model; rivals Equifax and TransUnion fell >8%.
  • Occidental –7% after selling a unit to Berkshire Hathaway.
  • Intel +7% on reports of talks with AMD over foundry cooperation; stock up 70% in six weeks after US took a 10% stake.
  • Nvidia reached a $4.5tn valuation, surpassing Amazon + Meta combined.

Labor Market, Fed & Shutdown

• Payrolls report delayed: Non-farm payrolls for September won’t be released due to the shutdown, despite reports data collection is complete.
• Private data: ADP reported –32k jobs in September, reinforcing weak labor market signals.
• Inflation: PCE headline inflation rose slightly to 2.7% YoY, core steady at 2.9%. Tariffs not yet a major driver.
• Consumer demand: Real spending rose 0.3% in August, led by goods (+0.7%) and services (+0.2%).
• Policy outlook: Markets price 95% chance of 50bps more Fed cuts by year-end, with October easing seen as likely.
• Shutdown impact: Economists estimate a 0.1–0.2ppt GDP drag per week, consistent with past short shutdowns (avg. 8 days). Lack of data complicates Fed policy.
• Fed’s Goolsbee: Cautioned against overly frontloading cuts; said Fed will rely on real-time indicators while official data is paused.

Global Equities

• Europe: STOXX 600 hit a record high, helped by pharma and Germany’s fiscal boost. Eurozone stocks are up 33% YTD in USD terms, over twice the S&P 500’s gains.
• Asia:
  • Korea Kospi +3% after Samsung and SK Hynix signed supply deals with OpenAI.
  • Japan Nikkei +1% on chip rally rebound.
  • China: Markets shut for Golden Week.

Commodities

• Oil:
  • Crude futures steadied after prior declines; focus on this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting and potential faster unwinding of 1.66m bpd of curbs.
  • Reuters survey: OPEC output rose +330k bpd in September to 28.4m bpd.
• Gold: Near $3,900/oz earlier in week; slipped slightly on profit-taking and absence of jobs data. Goldman Sachs keeps gold as top commodity long, forecasting $4,000 (mid-2026) and $4,300 (Dec-2026).
• Copper: Trading near $10,500/t with muted activity due to China’s holiday and US data blackout.

Other Developments

• Google: To build a multi-billion-dollar data center in West Memphis, Arkansas.
• BoC: Deputy Governor Mendes signaled a review of core inflation measures, exploring new frameworks like MCT (multivariate core trend inflation).
• US agriculture: Trump weighing $10bn+ farm bailout, possibly using tariff revenues, which could trigger Congressional conflict.
• Geopolitics:
  • Trump warned of project cuts and firings if shutdown continues.
  • US–Ukraine: US to provide intelligence for long-range strikes; NATO allies may follow.
  • Trump–Xi meeting planned in 4 weeks, soybeans expected to dominate trade talks.

Crypto

• Bitcoin: Back above the $120k level, trading modestly softer overnight though.