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The polling will take place on Thursday, July 4, when the US is out celebrating Independence Day. So, don’t expect any fireworks in the markets on Thursday. Ruling Conservatives are trailing Labour badly in the polls. If Labour does win, it must maintain investors' trust while tackling unresolved economic issues facing the UK, for example the public debt-to-GDP being at a 63-year high.
It's possible we'll know who won the first round of France's election by the time markets open in Asia next week, which means the euro and European index futures could be more active than usual. Traders should then look to the pound and FTSE for pre-election jitters, although once again it could be Asian markets that get to witness the results. Despite the public holiday on Thursday, the US economic calendar is also packed. Two key ISM reports for manufacturing and services land before July 4th, alongside JOLTS and ADP employment reports, which are the warm-up acts for NFP on Friday.
A UK general election will be held on July 4th. Since the announcement, the FTSE has fallen around 1%, and GBP remains well supported. In short, the market is calm about the prospect of Labour, which is ahead in the polls, winning power. This is because it is expected, and the policies aren't radically different from Conservative policies. The economy as a whole isn't expected to change its course and the timing of the BoE rate cut could be more of a market driver. That said, there are some policies that could affect specific sectors, which we consider below.
Liz Truss has resigned. The future of both the Conservative party and the UK government remains unclear. In the coming days, we’ll be finding out more information on the leadership contest and whether a general election could follow.
Liz Truss has resigned. The future of both the Conservative party and the UK government remains unclear. In the coming days, we’ll be finding out more information on the leadership contest and whether a general election could follow.
A surprise victory by Sunak could see stocks fall initially as hopes of an immediate dose of fiscal stimulus fade.
Truss is arguing for looser fiscal policy and tighter monetary policy, a policy stance that has historically supported strength in the underlying currency
Liz Truss appears to be the clear favorite over Rishi Sunak in early polling...
With today’s price action in Euro and Sterling, the next pair to look at is EUR/GBP.
For today’s most important data releases, the outcome was even worse than expected.
Entering this past week, there were three very large elephants in the room.
This is, above all, because of profit-taking.
Like him or loathe him, Boris Johnson is on track for the biggest election win since Margaret Thatcher, which is some feat given how polarised the Brexit debate has always been.
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