AUD/USD Susceptible to Negative Slope in 50-Day SMA
AUD/USD holds below the 50-Day SMA (0.6327) as it extends the decline from the start of the week.
Share this:
US Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD
AUD/USD holds below the 50-Day SMA (0.6327) as it extends the decline from the start of the week, and the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from the monthly low (0.6131) should it track the negative slope in the moving average.
AUD/USD Susceptible to Negative Slope in 50-Day SMA
AUD/USD starts to carve a series of lower highs and lows as it slips to a fresh weekly low (0.6237), with the recent weakness in the exchange rate pulling the Relative Strength Index (RSI) back from its highest reading since October.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
In turn, the RSI may show the bullish momentum abating as it falls toward oversold territory, but developments coming out of Australia may influence AUD/USD as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) retains a restrictive policy.
Australia Economic Calendar
The update to Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may encourage the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold as the headline reading is expected to increase to 2.5% in December from 2.3% per annum the month prior, and signs of persistent price growth may generate a bullish reaction in the Australian Dollar as ‘sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority.’
With that said, AUD/USD may face increased volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision as on January 29 as Governor Michele Bullock and Co. continue to combat inflation, but a softer-than-expected CPI print may drag on the Australian Dollar as it fuels speculation for an RBA rate-cut in 2025.
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
- AUD/USD starts to carve a series of lower highs and lows after struggling to close above 0.6318 (November 2023 low), and lack of momentum to hold above the 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6270 (2023 low) zone may push the exchange rate towards the monthly low (0.6131).
- A break/close below the 0.6130 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6170 (2022 low) region opens up the April 2020 low (0.5980), but AUD/USD may continue to gut check the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6327) should it retrace the decline from the weekly high (0.6315).
- A close above 0.6318 (November 2023 low) may push AUD/USD above the moving average for the first time since October, with the next area of interest coming in around 0.6380 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6410 (50% Fibonacci extension).
Additional Market Outlooks
USD/JPY Outlook Hinges on Federal Reserve Rate Decision
GBP/USD Breaks Above Weekly Range to Eye Monthly High
USD/CAD Remains Vulnerable to Trump Trade Policy Ahead of Fed Meeting
Gold Price Rally Fizzles to Keep RSI Below Overbought Zone
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on X at @DavidJSong
Related tags:
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Support Reversal Sets Up Breakout Test Ahead of NFP 11 4 2026
Euro bulls are attempting to build on the rebound from recent lows, but pivotal resistance still stands in the way of a larger EUR/USD recovery.
GBP/USD forecast: US Mid-terms, NFP and BoE put cable in sharp focus
The US dollar has been a standout loser in the FX space today. A Democrat-controlled Congress is widely seen as being at least mildly negative for the dollar, partly because of the potential implications for the AI investment story and partly because of the risk of another prolonged government funding standoff, potentially from next summer. This has allowed the likes of the GBP/USD to rally alongside gold and silver.
S&P 500 forecast: Democrats’ midterm victory rattled markets before dip buyers stepped in
Markets had a wild overnight session, with futures initially plunging before staging a sharp reversal and turning decisively higher. Global equity markets also bounced back, alongside gold and silver, while the US dollar has weakened. Oil prices fell on hopes of a deal between the US and Iran, providing another boost to market sentiment. The key question is why have markets rebounded so strongly and, more importantly, whether the recovery can last, given the prior assumption that a blue sweep would have been net negative for stocks?
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.