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Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD October Breakout Reverses Toward Critical Support

Aussie bulls face a critical test of rising trend support, with the October recovery under threat as selling pressure builds into November.

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Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD October Breakout Reverses Toward Critical Support 11 3 2026

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Multi-Timeframe Analysis

The Australian dollar fell on the RBA hike as the central bank dropped its explicit pledge to raise rates further if needed. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, breaks down the Aussie dollar across the weekly, daily and four-hour charts and maps the event risk ahead. The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered its fifth rate hike of the year but removed the line committing to further increases if needed. Governor Bullock said the change should not be read as a signal that the RBA is on hold, yet markets have taken it that way. The Australian dollar has yet to post a weekly close below its 52-week moving average, the key test for a consolidation range that has held since March, with the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement marking major support. U.S. nonfarm payrolls lead a loaded calendar that also includes ADP employment, ISM services and Australian trade balance data, and payrolls carry the largest potential impact on U.S. monetary policy.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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