Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Selloff Persists as PM Carney Pledges to Fight Trump Tariffs
USD/CAD extends the selloff from earlier this week as Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney pledges to ‘fight U.S. tariffs, protect Canadian workers and industries, and build the strongest economy in the G7.'
Share this:
Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD
USD/CAD extends the selloff from earlier this week as Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney pledges to ‘fight U.S. tariffs, protect Canadian workers and industries, and build the strongest economy in the G7,’ and the exchange rate appears to be on track to test the December low (1.3991) as it carves a series of lower highs and lows.
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Selloff Persists as PM Carney Pledges to Fight Trump Tariffs
USD/CAD no longer trades within the February range as it tumbles to a fresh yearly low (1.4027), with the recent weakness in the exchange rate pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to its lowest level since September.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
David provides a market overview and takes questions in real-time. Register Here
A move below 30 in the RSI is likely to be accompanied by a further decline in USD/CAD like the price action from last year, and the Canadian Dollar may continue to appreciate ahead of the federal election on April 28 as the Bank of Canada (BoC) warns that ‘monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war.’
Canada Economic Calendar
It seems as though the BoC will retain the current policy at its next rate decision on April 16 as the ‘Governing Council will be carefully assessing the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs,’ and the update to Canada’s Employment report may encourage Governor Tiff Macklem and Co. to further combat inflation as the economy is anticipated to add 12.0K jobs in March.
Signs of a resilient labor market may keep USD/CAD under pressure as it instills an improved outlook for growth, but a weaker-than-expected employment report may drag on the Canadian Dollar as it fuels speculation for another BoC rate-cut.
With that said, lack of momentum to test the December low (1.3991) may keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 30, but the selloff in USD/CAD may persist as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from earlier this week.
USD/CAD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CAD Price on TradingView
- USD/CAD snaps the February range to register a fresh yearly low (1.4027), with a break/close below the 1.3940 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to 1.4000 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) opening up 1.3850 (50% Fibonacci extension).
- Next area of interest comes in around the November low (1.3821), but USD/CAD may struggle to extend the bearish price a series should it defend the December low (1.3991).
- Need a move/close above 1.4110 (50% Fibonacci retracement) to bring the 1.4210 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 1.4270 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) zone back on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around the monthly high (1.4415).
Additional Market Outlooks
USD/JPY Selloff Pushes RSI Toward Oversold Territory
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Cup-and-Handle Formation Takes Shape
Gold Price Halts Decline from Record High Ahead of Trump Tariffs
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Coils Ahead of RBA Rate Decision
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
Related tags:
Latest market news
Open an account in minutes
Experience award-winning platforms with fast and secure execution, and enjoy tight spreads from 0.5 pts on FX and 0.3 pts on indices.
Economic calendar
Web Trader platform
Our sophisticated web-based platform is packed with features.
Related articles
USDCAD Forecast Fed expectations keep pressure on the Canadian dollar
Despite the Canadian dollar’s recovery attempts in previous weeks, a renewed loss of strength against the U.S. dollar is becoming evident. This is reflected in USD/CAD, which has gained more than 0.2% over the last 2 trading sessions, including the close of last week and the first session of this week.
USDCAD Forecast Canadian dollar weakens as tariff fears return
The week continues to move in favor of the US dollar against its main rivals, and this is also reflected in USD/CAD price action. Over the last three trading sessions, the pair has gained more than 0.6%, showing that the Canadian dollar continues to lose ground in a meaningful way.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Dip Buying Near $60K in Focus
Bitcoin dip-buying interest remains in focus as the cryptocurrency tests critical lows and momentum levels. Risk-off sentiment across the market remains broadly correlated, keeping key crypto regulatory developments in sight to confirm a possible structural turn.
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.forex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.