
Caution is king
Stock move cautiously higher
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Life and pensions consolidator Phoenix Group was top of the gainers on FTSE 100, gaining 1.49% on the back of strong first half results. InterContinental Hotels posted a rise in half-year profit yesterday and raised its dividend.
Recession fears
European stock markets were up this morning, while German industrial production slumped 1.5% in June, against expectations of 0.4%. Surveys suggest the German economy is heading for a further contraction in July, raising fears that Europe’s biggest economy may be heading for a recession.
Asian markets recovered some balance after China’s central bank moved to soothe market sentiment by setting a daily reference point for the yuan at 6.9996 per the dollar, just shy of the key level of 7 per dollar.
Life and pensions consolidator Phoenix Group was top of the gainers on FTSE 100, gaining 1.49% on the back of strong first half results. InterContinental Hotels posted a rise in half-year profit yesterday and raised its dividend.
Recession fears
European stock markets were up this morning, while German industrial production slumped 1.5% in June, against expectations of 0.4%. Surveys suggest the German economy is heading for a further contraction in July, raising fears that Europe’s biggest economy may be heading for a recession.
Asian markets recovered some balance after China’s central bank moved to soothe market sentiment by setting a daily reference point for the yuan at 6.9996 per the dollar, just shy of the key level of 7 per dollar.
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FTSE 100 and GBP/USD forecast: UK data gives BoE March cut a further boost
The FTSE 100 edged higher to close in on last week’s record, as the pound weakened following the release of UK wages and Jobs data that puts a March rate cut firmly on the table, barring any surprises in tomorrow’s inflation report. Unless we see a sharp turnaround in data, I would be expecting another rate cut in June, and possibly more in the summer if inflation risks ease. This should keep the longer term FTSE 100 forecast firmly supported and keep a lid on sterling.

FTSE 100 forecast - Indices weekend outlook | February 16, 2026
With the US out on Monday for Presidents’ Day and China celebrating Spring Festival all week, it makes sense to focus on European markets to start the week off. So the FTSE 100 forecast is in focus for this week’s weekend indices outlook. We have plenty of UK, European and US earnings to look forward to as the week progresses, while key data from the UK and US will make rate cut expectations a key talking point on both sides of the pond.
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