DXY at Key Resistance as FX Majors Lie in Wait | Weekly Technical Outlook

Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks

• Technical trade setups we are tracking into the start of the week on the USD Majors, commodities, and equity indices.
• Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, October 19 at 8:30am ET
• Event risk this week: US CPI, PPI & Retail Sales, Australia Employment  
• Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), Bitcoin (BTC/USD), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open. The assets are chaptered on the recording for your convenience.

US Dollar Index Price Chart – USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView

Notes: The US Dollar Index is testing resistance for a fourth time since the start of the month at the 61.8% extension of the January rally at 102.42. The immediate focus is on possible inflection off this zone with a breach / daily close above needed to validate a breakout of the October opening range. Note that daily RSI remains in overbought territory and keeps the momentum profile in favor of the bulls for now.

A breach here exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 2016 high close (HC) and the 2020 swing high at 102.95/99 backed by the 2023 yearly open at 103.49. Key support remains with the September 2024 high-day close (HDC) / high at 101.77/92. Losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant near-term high is in place and threaten a larger correction for the Dollar. Subsequent support rests with the July high-day close and the October open at 101.39/46 backed by the 38.2% retracement of the August rally at 101.02. Both levels represent areas of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.

Bottom line: DXY is testing major resistance here into the start of the week and the focus is on the close with respect to this level. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 101.77 IF the index is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 102.42 needed to fuel the next leg of the advance to fresh yearly highs.

The focus for the U.S. dollar this week shifts to the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Produce Price Index (PPI) reports, which could prove pivotal in shaping expectations for the Fed’s next policy move. While the probability of an October rate hike has fallen below 20%, interest rate markets continue to price more than an 85% chance of additional tightening before year-end. With recent inflation readings coming in softer than expected, a hotter CPI / PPI prints could revive the prospect of an earlier hike, underpinning Treasury yields and fueling renewed demand for the greenback. Conversely, further evidence of moderating price pressures could reinforce expectations for a more patient Fed and limit the DXY recovery.  Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for guidance.

British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView

Notes: Sterling has been consolidating within the October opening range with GBP/USD continuing to respect the median-line of the August pitchfork as resistance. Critical support rests at the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance and the 2026 low-week close at 1.3194. The bears are now attempting to mark an outside-day reversal and a break / weekly close below this threshold would validate a breakout of the yearly range and threaten resumption of the August downtrend.

Subsequent support objectives rest with the yearly low and the 2025 May & August lows at 1.3140 and is backed by the 2023 high week close (HWC) at 1.3092. Initial resistance is now eyed at the October open at 1.3265 with a breach / daily close above the 1.33-handle (near-term bearish invalidation) needed to suggest a more significant low is in place, and a larger recovery is underway.

Bottom line: GBP/USD contracting within the monthly range just above key technical support. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.3265 IF Sterling is heading lower on this stretch with a weekly close below 1.3194 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline. Watch the daily / weekly close for guidance here.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: The bulls are attempting to mark a sixth-consecutive weekly advance with USD/CAD trading within a well-defined monthly range just below key resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 decline at 1.4292. Daily RSI is trading just below the 70-threshold and a break higher in momentum alongside a breach / daily close above this key technical hurdle would threaten resumption of the broader August rally.

Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 1.618% extension of the January rally at 1.4335 and the 2025 March high week close (HWC) & the 2025 yearly open at 1.4375/83. Note that this level converges on the 75% parallel of the yearly uptrend later this week- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Initial support rests with the October opening range low which converges on the June high week & high day closes at 1.4194-1.4202. A break / daily close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant near-term high is in place and threaten a larger correction in USD/CAD. Subsequent support objectives rest with the November high at 1.4140 and the 38.2% retracement of the August rally at 1.4083.

Bottom line: USD/CAD is testing major Fibonacci resistance at the monthly range high. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to the 1.42-handle IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.4292 needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Economic Calendar – Key Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex