Gold and Silver Forecast: Are Precious Metals Near a Major Turning Point?

Gold and silver continue to trade within technically vulnerable zones, keeping the risk of another leg lower alive before a longer-term accumulation opportunity emerges—unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

Key Market Developments

• Gold continues to hold above 3,930, while daily momentum remains below the neutral threshold.
• Silver remains above 55, although daily momentum also stays below neutral.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trade above the critical 100.20–100.60 support zone, with daily momentum remaining constructive.

Together, these conditions suggest that further confirmation is still needed before a sustainable bullish reversal can develop in precious metals.

At the same time, they reinforce the broader strength of the US dollar against major currencies and metals, supported by:

• Markets continuing to price a meaningful probability of another Fed rate hike later this year, with Fed funds futures still implying over a 50% probability of tighter policy during Q4 2026.
• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target while balancing labour market and growth risks.
• Seasonal liquidity rebalancing heading into the summer months, increasing the potential for volatility.
• In May 2026, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly encouraged households to postpone non-essential gold purchases for roughly one year amid elevated oil prices, pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and rupee weakness. As India remains one of the world's largest consumers of physical gold, this may have contributed to softer sentiment toward precious metals since March 2026.

CME FedWatch Tool

Source: CME

Long-Term Bullish Case Remains Intact

Despite current headwinds, the structural outlook for precious metals remains constructive.

Central banks continue increasing their allocation to gold as part of reserve diversification, while growing industrial demand—particularly for silver through technology, electronics and the energy transition—continues to provide long-term support.

Consequently, the current correction may ultimately evolve into either:

• another opportunity to participate in the broader secular bull market, or
• an attractive long-term dip-buying opportunity.

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Key Technical Scenarios

Gold Price Forecast: Multi-Timeframe Technical Confluence

6-Month Time Frame (Log Scale)

Source: TradingView

Key observations

Gold is testing the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance between 1920 and 2026.

This represents one of the most important technical levels on the long-term chart.

A confirmed close below 4,020-3930 would expose the next major Fibonacci support zones:

• 3,500–3,400
  • 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
  • Former five-month resistance throughout 2025
• 2,800–2,700
  • Upper boundary of the 1980–2024 consolidation
  • 50% Fibonacci retracement

On the upside, sustained trading above: 4,020 - 4,180 -4,370–4,400 would reinforce confidence towards the long-term bullish continuation scenario, breaking above the descending resistance since March 2026.

Monthly Time Frame (Log Scale)

Source: TradingView

Key observations

Gold continues attempting to rebound from the long-term trendline connecting successive highs since 2016, while 3,930 remains a critical support level.

This creates another layer of technical confluence with the long-term 27.2% Fibonacci retracement.

A decisive monthly break below this trendline would strengthen the case for a heavy move toward the previously identified support zones.

However, the 3,460–3,500 area stands out as a high-probability zone for renewed buying interest before considering any broader bearish extension.

Importantly, monthly momentum continues to hold above the neutral threshold, suggesting the secular uptrend has not yet been invalidated, even though daily momentum remains below the neutral mark.

Daily Time Frame (Log Scale)

Source: TradingView

Near-term outlook

Gold's rebound from 3,930 toward 4,180 continues to be capped by the descending trendline that has guided prices lower since March 2026.

Should selling pressure intensify below:

• 4,090
• 4,020
• 3,930

the next downside objectives become:

• 3,880–3,810 (October 2025 lows) - short term
• 3,650  - short term
• 3,500–3,400 - long term

Conversely, a sustained breakout above the descending trendline, 4370-4400,  would provide the first meaningful confirmation that a bullish reversal is underway.

Silver Price Forecast: Daily Time Frame (Log Scale) 

Source: TradingView

Silver remains under pressure around the important 60 psychological level.

Prices continue trading beneath the descending trendline that has been in place since May 2026, while daily momentum remains below the neckline of the developed head-and-shoulders pattern.

Together, these factors keep downside risks elevated while highlighting the need for additional bullish confirmation before confidence in a sustained recovery can increase.

Should silver break back below 59, the following downside targets become relevant:

• 56 - short term
• 53.80 - short term
• 50 - long term
• 46 - long term

The broader 55–45 region represents a major long-term technical support area, aligning with:

• Former resistance from the 1980–2024 consolidation.
• The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance between 1920 and 2026.

On the upside, silver would need to reclaim: 64.60 - 68.00 - 72.00 before the broader technical outlook shifts back toward a constructive bullish bias.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

X: @Rh_waves