Last Week in Markets — Risk-On Rebound on Trade Hopes; Earnings in Focus

Last Week in Markets — Wrap & Week Ahead

Date: Monday, 3 Nov 2025

Weekly Wrap (global)

• Equities: Risk-on returned as a tentative US–China trade framework lifted sentiment. S&P 500/Nasdaq printed fresh highs early in the week; Asia/Europe rallied before some month-end trimming. Nikkei +16% in Oct, best since 1990.
• Leadership: Tech outperformed (strong AMZN/AAPL prints; AI/semis bid). “Mag 7” remained the focal cohort.
• Rates & FX: Haven unwind pushed 10y USTs toward 4%; USD edged lower on softer inflation + dovish Powell hints.
• Havens: Gold –2–3%, Treasuries softer on rotation into equities.
• UK: FTSE 100 snapped a 9-day streak (–0.2%); GBP/gilts broadly steady.

DAX Technical Analysis 4 hour

The Germany 40 CFD (4H) has bounced from the 24,000 area, regaining short-term traction after a period of consolidation. Price is now testing resistance near the 50 EMA (24,125), with the 200 EMA just above at 24,263, creating a compression zone. The RSI (52) has turned slightly higher, showing mild bullish momentum, while the MACD is flattening and hinting at a potential bullish crossover.

Immediate resistance stands at 24,350–24,510, followed by 24,648 (all-time high). Support remains firm at 24,000, then 23,800–23,650. A breakout above the moving average cluster would confirm short-term strength toward 24,500, while rejection here could keep the index range-bound. Overall tone: cautiously bullish rebound within a consolidating trend.

Macro Themes (highlights)

• China PMI (manufacturing): slipped 0.8 pts to 49.0 (6-month low). Orders and exports stayed contractionary; production dipped below 50. De-escalation in US–China trade could help orders. Despite PMI weakness, CSI 300 (EUR) up ~20% since April; consensus EPS +~10% next 12m. Chinese tech stocks remain structurally interesting (AI exposure, lower trade dependency).
• US energy use (structural): After ~20 years of flat/down usage, AI/data-centre load + onshoring likely to lift US energy demand again. Tailwinds for gas, selective oil/refining, and grid/clean-tech capex; long-run emissions path depends on mix.
• Earnings season (US): >50% of S&P mkt cap reported: ~80% beat sales, >80% beat EPS; avg EPS beat ~8% (Comm. Services ~16% standout). Tech guiding higher on cloud/AI capex (near-term margin drag, positive demand signal). Cyclicals-consumption more mixed. Base case finish: Sales +7.5%, EPS +12.5% y/y. Sector dispersion matters.

What to Watch This Week

Central Banks & Data

• Mon 3 Nov (US): ISM Manufacturing (Oct) cons 49.4 (from 49.1) — signals milder contraction; ISM Services (Wed) eyed to re-enter expansion.
• Tue (AU): RBA expected hold at 3.60%; prior hot CPI pares easing hopes; watch Gov. Bullock tone (hawkish risk → AUD support).
• Thu (UK): BoE decision hold at 4.00% base case (market ~70%); 30% odds of –25 bps. Inflation 3.8% y/y still sticky; focus on vote split and guidance ahead of Autumn Budget.

Earnings — Heavy slate

• Europe (Stoxx 600, 99 co’s): Ryanair, BP, Ferrari, Siemens Healthineers, Vonovia, Novo Nordisk, BMW, Ørsted, Vestas, Deutsche Post, AstraZeneca, Commerzbank, Rheinmetall, Daimler Truck.
• US (S&P 500, 136 co’s): Berkshire, Pfizer, Marriott, AMD, McDonald’s, Qualcomm, Moderna, Ralph Lauren, Airbnb, et al.
• Asia: Nintendo, Toyota, SoftBank, Honda and peers; HKEX, Galaxy Ent.; India: Airtel, SBI, Sun Pharma, Hindalco, Trent etc.

Near-term diary (times are local where relevant)

Mon, Nov 3

• PLTR post (exp move $17.85; EPS 0.12) · ON pre (±$5.75; 0.59) · HIMS post (±$5.67; 0.09)

Tue, Nov 4

• AMD post (±$19.85; 0.97) · SHOP pre (±$16.74; 0.24) · UBER pre (±$6.06; 0.67)
• ANET, AMGN, SMCI, PINS, RIVN, KGC post; BP, PFE pre

Wed, Nov 5

• NVO, MCD pre · QCOM, ARM, APP, FTNT, SNAP, LYFT, IONQ, JOBY, APP post · Unity pre

Thu, Nov 6

• WBD, DDOG pre · ABNB, AFRM, DKNG, MP, GSAT, TTD post · MRNA pre

Positioning Thoughts (tactical)

• Equities: Momentum remains tech-led; lean barbell (mega-cap AI + quality defensives). Watch for profit-taking into central-bank risk.
• Rates/FX: If ISM/Services rebound, UST 10y could re-test 4%+; USD path tied to data; GBP sensitive to BoE split and guidance.
• Commodities: Oil headline-driven (sanctions/supply); medium-term IEA surplus ’26 tempers inflation impulse. Gold likely range-trade while real yields firm.
• China/Asia: Macro mixed (PMI soft) but policy détente + AI supply chain remain supports; prefer China tech/platforms over heavy cyclicals.